Las Vegas Gives Baylor Fourth Best Odds to Win Big 12
With three months until the 2022 college football season kicks off, the too-early top 25 predictions and playoff contender discussions have begun heating up.
In Las Vegas, the folks over at Caesar’s Sportsbook released their preseason odds for the Big 12 Conference Champions and, despite taking the crown after a 12-2 season in 2021, Baylor finds themselves with only the fourth-best odds in the league at +600. Ahead of them are Oklahoma State (+400), which the Bears defeated in last year’s conference title game, Oklahoma (+200), and state rival Texas (+175).
Here’s a look at the full list:
Texas: +175
Oklahoma: +200
Oklahoma State: +400
Baylor: +600
Iowa State: +2,500
Kansas State: +2,500
TCU: +2,800
West Virginia: +4,000
Texas Tech: +6,000
Before discussing the teams listed one through three, let's talk about Baylor first.
The Bears are admittedly replacing quite a bit of production in 2022, such as running back Abram Smith who set the school single-season rushing record last year with 1,621 yards, and quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who did well to throw and run in the Bears' air and ground attack before losing the starting job to sophomore Blake Shapen during spring practice this offseason.
Bohanon has opted to transfer to South Florida since he lost his starting spot. Defensively, the Bears lost some talent as well.
Baylor will have to fill a handful of gaps on a defense that was one of the nation’s top turnover forcing units last year, getting their hands on 27 takeaways. Losing experienced players can certainly cause that number to regress, and subsequently, repeating as Big 12 champions will be a tall task for this reloading Bears team if the defense does not find noteworthy replacements. There is a track record to remember, however.
Head Coach Dave Aranda has quickly proven himself as one of the most capable leaders in college football and his staff has an army of experienced playmakers ready to step up and take on the challenge. Aranda enters his third season as the Bears’ Head Coach and has already instilled a culture of toughness and discipline in Waco.
Having served as the Defensive Coordinator for LSU and Wisconsin, the California native brings a grit to this Baylor unit that has paid huge dividends on both sides of the field. They touted one of the country's best defenses and rushing attacks last year, two factors that helped them control the pace during tight games and ultimately led to their goal-line stand victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game.
1️⃣4️⃣ Saturdays Out 👀#SicEm | #BUncommon pic.twitter.com/FQ6t4SLlvT
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) May 28, 2022
In football, being able to control the pace of the game starts up front, and although Baylor loses some big names from last year’s roster, both the offensive and defensive line will return almost every single starter.
The offensive front five is anchored by fifth-year senior left tackle Connor Galvin, last year’s Big 12 Lineman of the Year, as well as four other blockers with four-plus seasons of experience under their belt. Veterans like center Jacob Gall and right tackle Khalil Keith make this one of the most battle-hardened lines in college football.
Although they’ll have a new backfield behind them in huddle-caller Shapen and ball carriers Craig “Sqwirl” Williams and Taye McWilliams, Baylor’s line should produce similar results to last year when they helped cook up the fifth most rush yards in the FBS (3,070 yds).
On the flip side, their defensive line returns every starter including potential All-American, nose tackle Siaki Ika. The 6’4” 350-pound Ika is like a redwood tree in the middle of the Bears’ line, firmly planted in his stance and unwilling to budge for even the strongest of double-teams.
He showed off some serious explosiveness and mobility with four sacks and a pass deflection last year, not an easy feat for an interior lineman. He and the rest of this powerful block-shedding unit were one of the best at stopping the run in 2021. They’ll be relied on heavily to do work upfront, as they pick up the slack early for the mostly-new back seven on defense.
The experience that Baylor boasts, not only on the line but at many positions, is one of the reasons they stand a very good chance at making another title run. The three teams that Vegas has given better odds to are certainly formidable opponents. That being the case, Oklahoma State has quite a few question marks on the depth chart, and Red River rivals Oklahoma and Texas are going through rebuilding phases of their own (a process for Texas that is seemingly perpetual).
The Cowboys will have the benefit of Spencer Sanders returning under center, who was first-team All-Big 12 last year. The redshirt senior Sanders will lead a Cowboys offense that ranked sixth in the conference last season and loses two starting all-conference linemen, Josh Sills and Danny Godlevske, as well as their leading rusher, Jaylen Warren.
Texas went 5-7 last year under new head coach Steve Sarkisian and didn’t make a bowl game, so it’s only natural that the Longhorns miraculously have the best odds on this list (note sarcasm). Could this be the year that Texas finally lives up to the hype and puts all that talent they recruit to good use? It’s rather unlikely.
The Longhorns will have the former number one prospect, Quinn Ewers, taking snaps and Heisman candidate Bijan Robinson toting the rock, but they gave up more than their fair share of leads in 2021 as the defense allowed a whopping 31.1 points per contest, ranking it 99th in the county. Allowing 28.5 in 2020 and 27.5 in 2019 is not much better either. Perhaps old habits die hard in Austin. Look for the Longhorns to finish closer to the middle of the pack than the king of the hill.
That leaves Oklahoma as Baylor’s most daunting opposition this fall. After losing the Lincoln Riley sweepstakes to USC, the Sooners turned to Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables in their head coaching search and are poised to regroup for the upcoming season. Venables has had a lot of success over the past decade at Clemson and has produced plenty of NFL talent, but he’s a first-time head coach and that can be tricky for even the brightest of football minds.
Baylor’s own Dave Aranda is widely regarded as one of the top ten coaches in college football after just two seasons, but even he went 2-7 with the 2020 Bears in his head coaching debut. That leaves one additional point to make.
Likely, the biggest hurdle for Baylor this fall will be their schedule. The Bears’ only two losses came on the road last season and this year’s slate of games has a few doozies that could be disastrous for the Green and Gold. In Week 2, they’ll travel to BYU for their first test of the season against a scrappy Cougars team that won ten games in 2021 and returns nearly the entire roster.
They’ll also play road games at two of the toughest venues in football, visiting both Texas and Oklahoma in the last month of the season. These two matchups could be perilous for the Bears if they succumb to injuries during the season’s grind. Plus, their season finale with the Longhorns could have conference title implications depending on the way things land. Hard to project emotional games like the potential of that one.
On paper, it looks like Aranda and this Baylor battalion have as good a shot as anyone to hoist the Big 12 hardware come this December. Another twelve-win season may not be in the cards, but after a ten-game improvement from 2020 to 2021 (2-7 to 12-2), it’s hard to believe that there will be much regression from the Bears in 2022 and their +600 odds may pay off big time for Baylor bettors.
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