By The Numbers: How Baylor Bears Match Up With Oklahoma Sooners
By their records and by almost every metric, the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners are evenly matched going into Saturday's matchup in Norman.
Both teams come in at 5-3 overall and have endured up-and-down seasons that could see the winner not only get back into the Top 25 but also stay in the Big 12 Championship picture. Both teams are riding two-game winning streaks and seemed to have found their identity on offense. The Bears and the Sooners are nearly identical in their style, output and results from this season.
Baylor's most distinct advantage over the Sooners is in the running game, no advanced stats necessary. The Bears rank fourth in the conference in rushing yards per game at just over 200, but the Sooners sit dead last in the Big 12 in both total rushing yards allowed (1,518) and rushing yards per game (189.8). In fact, Oklahoma has given up 225 more total rushing yards than the next worst team in the Big 12. For reference, the Bears only give up an average of 113 rushing yards per game, meaning the gap between OU and the next worst rushing defense is worth the same amount of yardage Baylor would give up in two whole games.
The Sooners do run the ball well themselves, however. They have made running back Eric Gray a focal point the last two games, both Sooner victories, as he rushed for over 400 combined yards in those contests. Oklahoma actually rushes for more yards per game (217) than Baylor does, even having gone up against the second and third-best rush defenses in the Big 12 this year.
Unfortunately for Sooners fans, the Bears are the best team in the conference against the run with that 113 rushing yards against average. The Bears are one of three Big 12 teams that have yet to allow 1,000 rushing yards this year.
Because of the rushing numbers on both sides, these teams are eerily similar in the time of possession numbers, something that was key in Baylor's win over Texas Tech last week. In the game against the Red Raiders, the Bears held the ball for over 40 minutes, bringing their season average up to 33 minutes a game. Oklahoma is just the reverse of that, with 27 minutes of possession per game.
Interestingly enough, the stats also show Baylor might find some big plays in the passing game as well. In terms of explosive drives, those being scoring drives in which plays average 7.5 yards or more, Baylor ranks 15th in the country. While Oklahoma isn't too far behind offensively at 24th, their defense is a distant 53rd in terms of stopping explosive drives.
While Baylor is not known for their passing attack at this point in the year, the Sooners' defensive backfield only creates havoc (tackle for loss, deflection or turnover) on 6% of plays. The Bears' offense also only allows havoc by opposing defensive backs on 3% of plays, meaning they are efficient and typically safe when throwing the ball downfield.
A big advantage for the Sooners might just be their health, mainly in the area of predicted points added (PPA) which shows how much more likely a team is to score on a play when a certain player is on the field than whether is not on the field. Bears wide receiver Monaray Baldwin ranks second on the team in this category and he is still questionable for Saturday's game. All of Oklahoma's top five PPA performers are healthy.
All efficiency numbers, however, favor the Bears. Baylor's No. 21 ranked drive efficiency on offense is going against Oklahoma's No. 69 ranked defensive drive efficiency, while Baylor's 16th best defensive drive efficiency betters Oklahoma's 27th best offensive drive efficiency.
Based on efficiency levels of all three phases of the game, Baylor measures out to be the better team and would be 10.5 point favorites with an 81% win probability if the game were played at a neutral site.
Luckily for Sooners fans, and for all our enjoyment, it is not being played at a neutral site. But hey, those are just the numbers.
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You can follow Cameron Stuart on Twitter @RealCamStuart
Covering Baylor for Inside The Bears and the Locked on Baylor podcast. You can follow me for more Baylor content at @realcamstuart on Twitter. Originally from Rockland, Massachusetts and a Baylor alum, so I might mix the occasional bias and/or Boston sports tweet in there every once in a while.