College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Will Boise State hold its first-round bye?

Broncos were No. 11 in last week’s CFP rankings

Boise State Broncos wide receiver Austin Bolt. / Brian Losness-Imagn Images

Boise State checked in at No. 10 in the latest US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Poll, which were released Sunday.

Will the College Football Playoff committee have even more respect for the Broncos (11-1) when the next batch of CFP rankings are released at 5 p.m. Mountain time Tuesday?

The five highest-ranked conference champions receive an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff with the top four champions earning a first-round bye.

The committee had Boise State ranked 11th overall last week and seeded fourth in the bracket, slotted above projected Big 12 champion Arizona State. The 16th-ranked Sun Devils (10-2) will play No. 18 Iowa State (10-2) for the Big 12 championship. 

Riding a 10-game winning streak, Boise State is set to host No. 22 UNLV (10-2) at 6 p.m. Mountain time Friday for the Mountain West Football Championship.  

Here are eight expert predictions on where the Broncos and Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty will land in Tuesday’s rankings reveal.

1. Stan Becton, NCAA.com: No. 10 overall, No. 4 seed

Rationale: “Boise State handled business against Oregon State and will rise into the top 10.”

2. Heather Dinich, ESPN: No. 10 overall, No. 4 seed

Rationale: “The Broncos have maintained their position in the playoff picture, despite the No. 82 schedule in the country, in large part because they simply keep winning and the committee has been wowed by running back Ashton Jeanty. Boise State has won 10 straight games since losing 37-34 at Oregon on Sept. 7. … The only question is if the Broncos can hang onto the first-round bye as one of the committee's four highest-ranked conference champions, or if the Big 12 champion will ultimately jump them.”

3. RJ Young, Fox Sports: No. 12 overall, No. 12 seed

Rationale: “Jeanty is in the midst of one of the best seasons by a running back ever, chasing Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record. Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times for 2,288 yards in 2024. Sanders carried the ball 344 times for 2,628 yards in 1988. He won the Heisman. Derrick Henry carried the ball 395 times for 2,219 yards in 2015. He won the Heisman.”

4. Paul Myerberg, USA Today: No. 10 overall, No. 4 seed

Rationale: “Boise has already won 11 games for the first time since 2019 and could end up winning more than 12 games for the first time since 2009. The Broncos will be one of the top four seeds and earn a bye into the quarterfinals by beating UNLV to win the Mountain West.”

5. Blake Toppmeyer, USA Today: No. 11 overall, No. 11 seed

Rationale: “The Broncos aren’t your average Group of Five team. They possess one of the two front-runners for the Heisman Trophy. Their only loss came by three points, on the road, to Oregon. But, awarding Boise State the final first-round bye over a two-loss Big 12 champion would take some spine from a committee that’s consistently hesitated to put respect on Boise’s name.”

6. Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: No. 10 overall, No. 4 seed

Rationale: “Ashton Jeanty went for over 200 yards again in a 34-18 win over Oregon State. The Broncos still have to win the Mountain West to get into the CFP, and they will host UNLV on Friday in a rematch – this time for the conference crown.”

7. Brad Crawford, 247Sports: No. 4 seed (No overall seed given)

Rationale: “Boise State meets UNLV in the Mountain West Championship and will preserve its first-round bye status with a victory. However, if the Broncos lose to Barry Odom’s squad, then we’ll be looking at another Group of Five representative in the playoff.”

8. Nick Kosko, On3: No. 4 seed (No overall ranking given)

Rationale: “Boise State had a controlled effort against Oregon State and Ashton Jeanty went off again. This is what the Broncos have been doing all season long. But in order to make the playoff, they’ll have to beat UNLV in a rematch for the Mountain West title. Unfortunately, Boise State can’t afford a second loss despite a good ranking.”

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• What UNLV head coach said about Boise State, Ashton Jeanty

• What Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said about UNLV

• Boise State coach Spencer Danielson questions Travis Hunter’s Heisman frontrunner status

• Boise State coach Spencer Danielson: Several Broncos ‘are getting illegally recruited to get in the portal’

• Ashton Jeanty among top Black Friday NIL earners

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Continue to follow our Boise State coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and following us on Twitter.