ESPN FPI predictions: Boise State in great shape to secure playoff bid

Broncos have a 74 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff

Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. / Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

No. 12 Boise State (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West Conference) is once again a heavy favorite entering Saturday’s 6 p.m. Mountain time matchup with Nevada (3-7, 0-4) at Albertsons Stadium. 

The Broncos, who routed San Diego State 56-24 last week, are a 24-point favorite over the Wolf Pack. The line opened at -26.5. 

“There’s still a lot of things on film we have to improve on,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said during his weekly press conference. “We’ve played eight games, we talked about how big that game eight is, and now we’ve got to make sure we have to play our best football in game nine.”

ESPN FPI gives the Broncos a 94.3 percent chance to pick up their eighth win of the season. Boise State, ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll and College Football Playoff Rankings, is 19th in the FPI. 

Nevada has dropped three straight Mountain West games since an Oct. 12 upset victory over Oregon State. First-year head coach Jeff Choate’s team would need to pull off a much bigger shocker to snap the losing streak. 

“We’re going to play a really good Nevada team that’s getting better every week,” Danielson said. “I think very highly of Jeff Choate, what he did not only here as a coach, but at Montana State as a head coach, and he’s been at Texas.” 

Choate was an assistant at Boise State from 2006-11 under Chris Petersen. 

“We know we’re going to get Nevada’s best,” Danielson said. “We know they’ve had some injuries, those guys will be healthy against us. We’re going to get Nevada’s best on Saturday, and they’re going to get Boise State’s best, too.” 

The Broncos are on track to be heavy favorites in all four of their remaining regular-season contests.

In next week’s road game at San Jose State, Boise State has an 87.6 percent chance to leave the Bay Area with a victory, according to the ESPN FPI. The Broncos’ chances are even better at Wyoming (95.1 percent) and at home against Oregon State (89.8 percent). 

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’' performance going forward for the rest of the season,” ESPN states.

FPI gives Boise State a 77.9 percent chance to win the Mountain West and a 74 percent chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

UNLV is a distant second at 17.9 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. The Broncos defeated the Rebels, 29-24, in Las Vegas and could potentially meet the Mountain West Football Championship. 

Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman Trophy hopeful, ran for 128 yards and a touchdown in the victory over UNLV. 

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• Opposing defenses are trying to stop Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty from winning the Heisman

• Latest Heisman Trophy odds: Ashton Jeanty still in top 4

• Boise State No. 12 in first College Football Playoff Rankings