Predicting BC's Offensive Personnel Usage in 2021
One of the best ways to understand how an offense functions is by looking at what personnel they most frequently put on the field. Obviously, certain players will be on the field for the vast majority of the snaps. But investigating which skill position players (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.) are on the field the most gives us an idea of how an offense is trying to move the ball and score touchdowns. In this article, I’ll explain the numerology behind differentiating personnel groups on offense, explain BC’s usage over the past few years, and try to predict one, how frequently BC will use each personnel grouping, and two, who will take the field in those groups.
Explaining Football Numerology
If you watch consume content centered on football analysis or follow certain subsets of Twitter, you’ve probably heard terms like 12 or 11 personnel thrown around. Those numbers might seem confusing because obviously, only 11 players are allowed on the field at any given time on either side of the ball. So let’s dive into explaining what these numbers mean. If you already know the difference between 12 and 21 personnel, feel free to skip this section. But if you don’t, keep reading.
For a long time, football coaches have adopted a two-digit system for identifying their different personnel groupings. In this framework, the first digit is the number of running backs on the field, and the second is the number of tight ends. By process of elimination, this also indicates the number of wide receivers on the field. For example, if there is one running back, one tight end, five offensive linemen, and one quarterback, there are then three wide receivers in 11 personnel. Here are some examples of the most frequently used personnel groupings in college and professional football (not necessarily in this order):
00 - zero RBs, zero TEs, five WRs
01 - zero RBs, one TE, four WRs
10 - one RB, zero TEs, four WRs
11, one RB, one TE, three WRs
12 - one RB, two TEs, two WRs
13 - one RB, three TEs, one WR
20 - two RBs, zero TEs, three WRs
21 - two RBs, one TE, two WRs
22 - two RBs, two TEs, one WR
23 - two RBs, three TEs, zero WRs
The idea behind this numbering system helps both the offense organize their formations into specific personnel groups. It also helps the defense identify what personnel they should use in response. Generally, over the last few decades, football has shifted from 21 personnel to 12 and now primarily 11, as offenses seek to get more speed and athleticism on the field with more wide receivers on the field. With that in mind, let’s move on to which personnel groups the Eagles have favored over the last few years.
How the Eagles Flock
From 2019 to 2020, the BC offense underwent a massive shift in its personnel usage. In the last four years of the Steve Adazzio era, the BC offense primarily operated out of 12 personnel, using two tight ends to help block for the run game and set up play-action passes. Their next most frequent groups would probably be 11 personnel and 13 personnel. But the Eagles’ offense would line up in traditional 11 personnel formations, but with two tight ends, and put players like Chris Garrison and Korab Idrizi in the slot or even out wide. After those three, I would think the next most frequent would be the heavy/jumbo packages like 22 and 23 personnel. In general, the previous administration’s offense did not want to use multiple wide receiver sets.
But all that changed in 2020. The BC offense completely flipped in their run-pass splits and thus used very personnel groups. 11 became the predominant grouping, with smatterings of 12, 13, and 21. Very few offenses have an even distribution of personnel groupings, but I’d still expect the BC offense in 2021 to use their personnel very similarly. Next, I’ll break down which players will take the field the most in these personnel groupings, and I’ll project how often BC uses them.
11 Personnel Group: RB - Travis Levy / Alec Sinkfield; TE - Trae Barry; WRs - Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis, Jaelan Gill
Usage Projection: ~60%
After last year, I expect the BC offense to continue operating primarily from 11 personnel. BC has incredible depth at the wide receiver position, so getting three of them on the field at a time is an intelligent strategy. As it’s still somewhat unclear who will win the starting running back job, it’s probably better to put one of the wideouts on the field instead. Travis Levy is an excellent pass catcher and a solid pass blocker, while Sinkfield brings a new dimension of speed and explosivenss. Trae Barry should take the lion’s share of the snaps at tight end, but Spencer Witter could come on the field if the Eagles want to run the ball from 11 personnel.
Obviously, Zay Flowers will start at wide receiver, and he will probably line up as the Z. At X, I’d expect CJ Lewis to be back in his role there. One advantage of a big player like Lewis, a solid blocker, is that BC can come out in some 12 personnel looks with Lewis as a faux-tight end. Finally, in the slot, I think Jaelan Gill will take up that mantle after finishing the year very strong. The advantage of getting Kobay White back is that he can line up at any receiver spot.
12 Personnel Group: RB - Travis Levy / Alec Sinkfield; TEs - Trae Barry, Spencer Witter; WRs - Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis
Usage Projection: ~20%
Even despite their shift to a passing-oriented offense, the Eagles still frequently operated out of 12 personnel. Thanks to the previous regime’s recruiting, the tight end position is still quite deep so that the Eagles can field multiple tight end sets with ease. At running back, it's still between Levy and Sinkfield. Sinkfield might be the traditional early-down back (perhaps even splitting some carries with Patrick Garwo), while Levy plays on passing downs. Again, Zay Flowers and CJ Lewis will most likely start, with Jaelan Gill and Kobay White coming off the field to spell them.
Barry and Witter should be the two tight ends on the field. I’d expect Witter to play the Y tight end, as the tight end playing on the line of scrimmage, attached to the offensive line, and towards the run strength. Conversely, Barry will shift to the secondary tight end role (F, H, or U depending on who you ask), allowing him to align off the line of scrimmage, go in motion, and even line up in the slot occasionally.
21 Personnel Group: RBs - Travis Levy, Alec Sinkfield; TE - Trae Barry; WRs - Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis
Usage Projection: ~7.5%
This is a personnel group that BC has not used very frequently in a long time. Traditionally, 21 personnel was reserved for the old Split Back and I-Formations. But my idea for this group is getting two speedier backs that BC can use in the passing game on the field at the same time. In 2019, Travis Levy was listed as an RB/WR, and while he did not line up outside and run a full route tree, he was used like Flowers as a jet sweep player. I think Frank Cignetti could get very creative by putting Levy and Sinkfield on the field at the same time. Additionally, the vast majority of defenses are structured around stopping one-back offenses; putting two on the field puts them off-balance before the ball is even snapped. For the rest of the offensive group, we have the normal triumvirate of Flowers, Lewis, and Barry.
10 Personnel Group: RB - Travis Levy / Alec Sinkfield; WRs - Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis, Jaelan Gill, Kobay White
Usage Rate: ~7.5%
I’m pretty sure I could count on one hand the number of times Steve Adazzio’s offenses used 10 personnel. Naturally, the Dazzler preferred to go with multiple tight ends to run the ball. Even in obvious passing situations, there would usually be a tight end on the field, sometimes two even. But now, I’d like to see Frank Cignetti take advantage of the depth at wide receiver and get four of them on the field simultaneously. Personally, I really like offenses that can run the ball from spread sets in the shotgun. With BC’s offensive line, Travis Levy and Alec Sinkfield can take advantage of weak boxes when the offense comes out in pass-heavy personnel.
Generally, I’d expect CJ Lewis to stay in the X spot primarily, but the remaining three receivers can all win from both the outside as the Z receiver and from the slot. White is the biggest among the three and probably the most experienced at playing on the line of scrimmage and dealing with press coverage. Therefore, putting dynamic athletes like Flowers and Gill in the slot to take advantage of lesser defensive backs could be a winning solution. I think BC could use a lot of 3x1 sets to create different types of mismatches. They could stay basic and put Lewis as the single backside receiver and load up the other side with their smaller, quicker receivers. Or they could isolate Flowers on the backside, check how the defense responds, and then attack wherever they think they have the best mismatch.
01 Personnel Group: TE - Trae Barry; WRs - Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis, Jaelan Gill, Kobay White
Usage Projection: ~2.5%
This grouping is one that I don’t think BC might have ever used during Steve Adazzio’s tenure. Naturally, a formation with no running backs on the field would be anathema to the Dazzler. But with this collection of skill players, such a position could be deadly. In my scouting report on Trae Barry, I described how he was primarily used as a massive wide receiver at Jacksonville State. I think he’ll get more reps as a traditional tight end in Chestnut Hill, but this group would allow BC to attack the defense in never-before-seen ways.
Barry and Flowers are probably the most flexible and dynamic pieces in this group, as they both align outside or in the slot and take advantage of size and athletic mismatches, respectively. Additionally, such a formation would be an exciting way to get Phil Jurkovec involved in the run game, which I discussed in another article. With all that being said, I would not anticipate this group to be used very frequently, and it will be most likely reserved for very specific end-of-half or end-of-game situations.
13 Personnel Group: RB - Patrick Garwo III / Travis Levy; TEs - Trae Barry, Spencer Witter, Joey Luchetti / Charlie Gordinier; WR - Zay Flowers / CJ Lewis
Usage Projection: ~2.5%
13 personnel was very popular in the BC offense, especially during the Scot Loeffler days. BC utilized players like Tommy Sweeney, Hunter Long, Jake Burt, Korab Idrizi, and Chris Garrison primarily as blockers but could run hard play-action as well. Last year, BC used this formation a decent bit early in the year, but it faded later in the season. I think Patrick Garwo III would take the field in heavy formations like these instead of Alec Sinkfield or Travis Levy (although Levy could stay on due to his experience). Garwo is a bigger back that is better than the other two at running between the tackles, given his size, strength, and contact balance. At the tight end position, Barry and Witter should be the primary tight ends.
As for the third, I anticipate a battle between Joey Luchetti and Charlier Gordinier. Luchetti has more “experience” and is a big, strong, tough player, but he hasn’t taken the field as a tight end in two years. Gordinier was a highly-touted recruit who redshirted last year, so it’s hard to know what role he’ll fill. I’d expect Witter and Luchetti to align on the line of scrimmage, while Barry will align off the line, allowing him to move around the formation as a blocker and receiver. At wide receiver, CJ Lewis would make a lot of sense, given his size and proficiency as a blocker. But getting Zay Flowers on the field would force the defense to respect his speed (on deep routes or as a jet sweep player), which would both open up the run game and the middle of the field for the tight ends.
14 Personnel Group: RB - Patrick Garwo III; TEs - Trae Barry, Spencer Witter, Joey Luchetti, Charlier Gordinier / Brendan Smith / Hans Lillis
Usage Projection: ~1%
Pretty much everything I said about 13 personnel can be repeated for 14 personnel. For BC’s jumbo sets and goal-line offense, I would expect BC to use 14 personnel groupings. Patrick Garwo III will most likely be the goal-line and short-yardage back with David Bailey off to re-join Steve Adazzion in Fort Collins. At tight end, the competition shifts to the fourth spot. I think Luchetti should be locked in for a spot in this group. Therefore, the younger players like Gordinier, Brendan Smith, and Hans Lillis will duke it out for the fourth tight end spot. This position battle will be slightly different because whoever wins will most likely have to be comfortable playing a fullback-type role that can line up in the backfield in I-formations. Lillis’ size/build (6’3”, 250 lbs) could make him an ideal candidate for this spot, but I could imagine there might be some rotation at this position.
The other possibility is that BC opts to bring on some extra offensive lineman in the place of tight ends, possibly to fill that fullback role. Fans may remember Clemson’s Refridgerator package, with defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence taking the field in short-yardage situations as the fullbacks. BC actually used a similar package in 2017, when Chris Lindstrom lined up at fullback and helped pave the way for some big AJ Dillon runs against Louisville in Dillon’s breakout game. As for who could fill this role, given his size, experience, and seniority in the room, along with the depth at the position, I think Ben Petrula would be best suited for this role. He’s played every position on the offensive line, so why not add some tight end or fullback to his resume? Capping off his BC career by scoring a touchdown at the goal-line would be a fantastic send-off for the fifth-year senior.
Let us know what you think! Were there any groupings we glossed over or ones that weren’t mentioned that you’d like to see? Or even players that you think will see the field more than predicted? Head over to the Maroon and Gold Forums to let us know!
