Reevaluating the Boston College Football Schedule
Before I begin, allow me to introduce myself. My name's Mike Giblin. I've casually blogged for the past few years writing newsletters for BC fans called #SOAR Scoops and tweeting for way too long as @hoyaeagle. One thing led to another and I'll be moving thoughts and musings about BC over here at BC Maven with A.J. Hopefully you enjoy.
Okay, so let's talk about this Boston College football schedule. At the beginning of the year I broke down the schedule into five different categories:
1) Definite Ws, aka the cupcakes - Richmond, Kansas, @Rutgers
2) Should Wins, not a walkover but a game we should expect to win - @Louisville
3) Toss-Ups, flip a coin because they could go either way- Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, @Pitt
4) Likely Losses, we'll be underdogs and have a tough time winning - @Syracuse, Florida State
5) Little to no shot, on the road and against Top 10 teams - @Clemson, @ Notre Dame
Well after two weeks of college football, things have most certainly changed!
First, we won 2 of those games! We won one of those massive toss-up games against Virginia Tech and took care of business against cupcake Richmond. The rest of the schedule, which before the season looked so daunting, appears much more manageable. In fact, I only see one team looking more challenging than originally anticipated with a few looking more susceptible. Here's how I'd rerank the remaining 10 games and why.
1) Definite Ws, aka the cupcakes - Kansas, @Rutgers
Nothing changes here. The Jayhawks lost at home to Coastal Carolina last week and we're 3 TD favorites Friday night. Rutgers meanwhile just got shutout at home by Iowa 30-0. The Scarlet Knights have a bye this week to prepare for us but we should still roll them.
2) Should Wins, not a walkover but a game we should expect to win - @Pitt, FSU
I've dropped the Panthers to a should win. Sure, a lot can change between now and the last game of the season for both BC and Pitt but right now the Panthers stink. There offense is really, really ugly and I'm not fooled by their 10-point win over an Ohio team whose starting QB was ill. If things stay the same, we should be favored when we head there to close the season.
Oh, I also added FSU and dropped them two categories. The Seminoles look pathetic. They needed an overtime missed extra point to beat UL-Monroe. Something is clearly off with Willie Taggert's Noles. With the FSU coming to Chestnut Hill in November, I'm marking this as one BC should expect to win. Funny how much has changed in just two weeks.
3) Toss-Ups, flip a coin because they could go either way- Wake Forest, @Louisvile, NC State, @Syracuse
Nothing changed for Wake and NC State. They both look pretty good and will be tough games for BC, especially since both of their QBs look to have some mobility which gives our D fits.
I moved the Cardinals up to a toss-up. I always liked Scott Satterfield's Appalachian State teams and he already seems to be righting the ship at Louisville. They played Notre Dame tough in their opener and just spanked an FCS team. They're gonna try for their head coach which we couldn't say last fall.
I did however move Syracuse down to a toss-up. They looked iffy Week 1 vs Liberty and got embarrassed this past weekend by Maryland. Giving up 63 points and 600+ yards to Maryland brings up major questions about the Orange D, which Cuse fans thought might even be a strength of their team this year.
4) Likely Losses, we'll be underdogs and have a tough time winning
None here.
5) Little to no shot, on the road and against Top 10 teams - @Clemson, @ Notre Dame
Nothing from the first two weeks has changed my opinion on these two games for BC: I don't like our chances.
So, after two weeks we've seen three teams look much more beatable: FSU, Pitt, and Syracuse. Meanwhile, only Louisville looks a tad tougher. Now having said all this, it's BC and Steve Addazio. We've lost "should wins" as recently as last year (that debacle at FSU). Toss-ups have tended to go the other direction for us. And some of these teams might fix their issues and become a much tougher opponent than they currently appear.
But look at what's on the table with that schedule. No, not just a chance to go bowling or surpass our "7-win ceiling." There's potential for a breakthrough season. If our offense continues to be explosive, the defense improves and forcing turnovers, and our special teams perform well; then maybe we can have that special season Eagles fans have been craving for over a decade.
