How Did Boston College's Loss to Virginia Impact Win Probability For Rest of Season?

The Eagles are currently favored to win two of their final six games after the defeat.

Oct 5, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Malachi Fields (8) throws a pass against Boston College Eagles defensive lineman George Rooks (91) during the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

The Boston College Eagles football team suffered its second loss of the season on Saturday afternoon to the Virginia Cavaliers 24-14. 

After the Eagles got off to a 14-0 lead, the Cavaliers stormed back and scored 24 unanswered to secure the win. 

So how did the loss impact Boston College’s win probability for the remainder of its schedule?

Quite a bit. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor currently has Boston College favored in just two of the team’s final six games of the season. 

Below are chances for each matchup left in the regular season. 

Virginia Tech: After a bye week, the Eagles take the field again on Thursday, Oct. 17 against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Va. Currently, the Hokies are the favorite to pull out the victory with a 70.4% chance, while Boston College has a 29.6% chance. 

Louisville: The Eagles return to Alumni Stadium for their homecoming game on Friday, Oct. 25 to take on Louisville. As of now, the Cardinals are the favorite to win with a 69.9% chance, while Boston College has a 30.1% chance. 

Syracuse: After the team’s second bye week of the year, Boston College will host Syracuse on Saturday, Nov. 9. Right now, the Eagles are the favorite to win with a 64.7% chance versus the Orange 35.3% chance. 

SMU: The Eagles travel to Dallas, Texas, to take on No. 25 SMU on Saturday, Nov. 16, the team’s last road game of the regular season. The Mustangs are currently the favorites to win the contest with a 83.6% chance. Boston College has a 16.4% chance. 

UNC: The Eagles come back to Alumni Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, to take on UNC. Boston College is the favorite at the moment to pull out the victory with a 64% chance, while the Tar Heels have a 36% chance. 

Pitt: Boston College hosts No. 22 Pitt for its final game of the regular season on Saturday, Nov. 30. The Panthers are slightly favored to win with a 56.1% chance, while the Eagles have a 43.9% chance.

If the season plays out like this, Boston College will finish the regular season 6-6 overall and 3-5 in ACC play.