Analyzing BYU Basketball's Chances to Make a Run in March

Casey Lundquist | Feb 23, 2025

Feb 22, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; BYU Cougars guard Trey Stewart (1) talks with the referee after he threw the ball at Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd by accident during the second half at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

BYU basketball has won four consecutive games including back-to-back wins over ranked teams. 10 games ago, BYU was on the outside looking in at the projected NCAA Tournament field. After winning 8 out of the last 10, BYU is now positioned to play in the NCAA Tournament and potentially earn a top four seed in the Big 12 tournament.

Today, we're looking at the numbers behind BYU's seed probabilities and the Cougars' chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Is BYU a Lock for the NCAA Tournament?

With four games to go in the regular season, BYU is not a lock to go to the NCAA Tournament, but they are very close. TeamRankings gives BYU an 89.4% chance to make the tournament. By the numbers, 21 wins is the threshold for BYU to feel really good about getting an at-large bid.

The Cougars are sitting at 19 wins with four games remaining. Using KenPom game probabilities, BYU has an 87.4% chance to get to 21 wins before the Big 12 tournament, and a 50.0% chance to go 3-1 over the last four and finish the season 22-9.

At 22 wins, BYU would not only be a lock, but potentially a 7-seed or better.

Seeding Probabilities

BYU is starting to rack up quality wins and bolster its NCAA Tournament resume. BYU is off the bubble and playing for a better seed in the tournament. TeamRankings even gives BYU a slight chance to earn a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. What would need to happen for BYU to get a 3-seed or a 4-seed? The Cougars would need to win out and win the Big 12 tournament.

BYU would have to overcome the odds to make that happen. KenPom gives BYU a 9.7% chance to win out in the regular season. On top of that, winning the Big 12 tournament would require three more wins against three of the best teams in the league. BYU's chances to win the conference tournament at this point are 2.9%.

BYU's most likely seed is an 8-seed as of Sunday morning.

• 3 seed: 0.7%
• 4 seed: 2.2%
• 5 seed: 5.3%
• 6 seed: 10.8%
• 7 seed: 18.4%
• 8 seed: 22.2%
• 9 seed: 16.3%
• 10 seed: 8.4%
• 11 seed: 3.7%
• 12 seed: 1.1%

Can BYU Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run?

The Cougars are peaking at the right time and have the necessary ingredients to make a run in March. First and foremost, BYU would have to overcome history to make a run. Historically speaking, BYU has been a team that underperforms in the NCAA Tournament. Among teams that have never made the Final Four, BYU has the most NCAA Tournament appearances.

Here are BYU's chances to advance to each round in the NCAA Tournament according to TeamRankings:

• Get in the NCAA Tournament: 89.4%
• Round of 64: 88.5%
• Round of 32: 52.3%
• Sweet 16: 18.2%
• Elite 8: 7.7%
• Final 4: 2.8%
• National Championship: 0.9%
• Win National Championship: 0.1%