Cougs Daily

Breaking Down BYU's Chances of a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

On Sunday, BYU was selected as an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars, a 6-seed, will take on the 11-seed Duquesne Dukes in the first round.

Casey Lundquist

On Sunday, BYU was selected as an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars, a 6-seed, will take on the 11-seed Duquesne Dukes in the first round.

Kelley Ford, the founder of the KFord Ratings, evaluated BYU's chances of a deep NCAA Tournament run. 

  • Advance to the second round - 82%
  • Advance to the Sweet 16 - 40%
  • Advance to the Elite Eight - 18%
  • Advance to the Final Four - 5%
  • Advance to the National Championship - 2%
  • Win the National Championship - 1%

If BYU shoots it well from three, they are capable of beating almost anyone in the country. The key to a deep tournament run will be to avoid a shooting slump. If BYU shoots 30% or better from three, they will have a chance to win most games. That's why BYU has the best chance of any 6-seed to advance to the Sweet 16 and beyond. When the Cougars are on, they are a tough out.

Ford gives Illinois a 56% chance to advance to the Sweet 16, so that leaves just a 4% chance for either Duquesne or Morehead State to advance to the Sweet 16.

UConn is the odds-on favorite to win the East. The Huskies have a 36% chance of advancing to the Final Four. Both Auburn and Iowa State have a 21% chance to win the East and advance to the Final Four.

Game Information

BYU (23-10) vs Duquesne (24-11)
Thursday, March 21
Tipoff: 10:40 a.m. MT
Omaha, Nebraska
CHI Health Center Omaha

Duquesne enters this game on an eight-game winning streak. The Dukes were 6-8 in conference play before they started a winning streak that ended with four straight wins to win the A-10 tournament. This is their first NCAA tournament bid in 47 years.

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Casey Lundquist
CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.

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