BYU Basketball Updated Odds to Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

Casey Lundquist | Mar 22, 2025

Mar 20, 2025; Denver, CO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Dallin Hall (30) dribbles the ball against VCU Rams guard Max Shulga (11) during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

On Thursday, the BYU basketball program advanced past the round of 64 for the first time since Jimmer Fredette carried the Cougars to the Sweet 16 in 2011. The Cougars are set to face the Wisconsin Badgers in the second round of the tournament for a spot in the Sweet 16.

Given Friday's results, the winner of BYU-Wisconsin will advance to take on Alabama-Saint Mary's. Now that BYU's path to a deep tournament run is coming into focus, we'll revisit the numbers behind BYU's chances to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Can BYU Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run?

First things first, BYU needs to survive the first weekend. That alone would make this postseason one of the most succesful in program history. BPI gives BYU a 46.7% chance to beat Wisconsin and advance to the Sweet 16.

KenPom is slightly less optimistic about BYU's chances to pull off the upset in the second round. KenPom gives BYU a 41% chance to beat Wisconsin.

The Sweet 16

Should BYU advance past the second round, they will play the winner of Alabama-Saint Mary's in the Sweet 16. KenPom would favor Alabama over BYU by 6-7 points.

If Saint Mary's pulls off the upset and advances to the second round, KenPom would predict a tossup between BYU and Saint Mary's.

ESPN BPI gives BYU a 19.5% chance to advance to the Elite Eight. Of the four teams in BYU's region that could play in the Elite Eight, Alabama has the best chance to advance to the Elite Eight per BPI.

• Alabama - 43.8%
• Wisconsin - 24.0%
• BYU - 19.5%
• Saint Mary's - 12.8%

In other words, if BYU survives the second round, BPI gives BYU a 41.8% chance to advance to the Elite Eight.

The Final Four and Beyond

ESPN BPI gives BYU an 4.9% chance to advance to the Final Four. Duke has the best odds to reach the Final Four according to BPI.

• Duke - 51.4%
• Alabama - 16.1%
• Arizona - 12.0%
• Wisconsin - 6.6%
• BYU - 4.9%
• Baylor - 4.0%
• Saint Mary's - 2.7%
• Oregon - 2.1%

Of the eight teams remaining East Region, three of them are Big 12 schools. BPI gives the Big 12 a 20.9% chance to represent the East Region in the Final Four.