KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball vs Alabama in the Sweet 16

Casey Lundquist | Mar 23, 2025

Mar 22, 2025; Denver, CO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Trey Stewart (1) reacts after defeating the Wisconsin Badgers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

BYU's Sweet 16 matchup has been set. On Thursday, the 6-seed BYU Cougars will take on the 2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide for a spot in the Elite Eight. Alabama knocked out Saint Mary's in the second round on Sunday to advance to play BYU.

This game could be a shootout. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Alabama plays with the fastest pace in the country, so BYU's depth will be an important storyline in this game.

KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU-Alabama. KenPom gives BYU a 34% chance to win with an expected final score of 89-84 in favor of Alabama.

Like he has in so many games during BYU's run this month, Keba Keita is going to play a critical role as both a rim protector and a rebounder. The Crimson Tide make 60.2% of their two-point attempts which ranks third in the country. Alabama attacks the rim and creates lob opportunities as well as any team in the country. Keita will be BYU's last line of defense around the rim.

On the offensive glass, BYU will need to create more opportunities for themselves to counter Alabama's scoring prowess. The Crimson Tide allow offensive rebounds on 29% of misses which ranks 154th in the country. That's an area where BYU could exploit an Alabama weakness in this game.

The Alabama defense has been vulnerable at times. Over the last 10 games, the Crimson Tide have allowed 80 or more points 7 times. Over the same stretch, Alabama has allowed 90 or more points 4 times.