KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball at Arizona, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Feb 21, 2025

BYU star Richie Saunders against Kansas / BYU Photo

In this story:

BYU Cougars

On Saturday night, BYU basketball will take on the Arizona Wildcats in the first of two consecutive road games in Arizona. Arizona has been one of the best teams in the Big 12 throughout conference play. The last time these two teams met, a back-and-forth game went Arizona's way after a late BYU scoring drought allowed the Wildcats to pull away.

BYU is looking to not only cement themselves as an NCAA Tournament team, but improve their seeding opportunities as well. A win at Arizona would be BYU's best win of the season up to this point and make them a lock for the NCAA Tournament.

KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU at Arizona and updated BYU's projected regular season win total. KenPom gives BYU a 26% chance to win with an expected final score of 80-73.

ESPN BPI is less optimistic about BYU's chances to win this game compared to KenPom. ESPN BPI gives BYU a 22.9% chance to beat the Wildcats.

Updated Projections for BYU Basketball

BYU basketball has five games remaining in the regular season. The upcoming game at Arizona is the second most difficult game remaining according to KenPom. Below are the win probabilities for each of BYU's remaining games.

at Arizona - 26%
at Arizona State - 59%
vs West Virginia - 73%
at Iowa State - 24%
vs Utah - 84%

KenPom's projected record for BYU is 21.0-10.0. For BYU, the goal will be to get to 21 wins in the regular season. Getting to 21 wins would put BYU in a very good situation to make the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.

What does BYU need to do to get to 21 wins? The clearest path to 21 wins would be to protect home court and steal one of the last three road games. BYU needs to win at least three out of the last five to get to 21 wins. On paper, BYU's best chance to get a road win would be against Arizona State. BYU beat the Sun Devils 76-56 to kickoff conference play.

Published Feb 21, 2025

CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.