KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball vs VCU in the NCAA Tournament

Casey Lundquist | Mar 16, 2025

Mar 14, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars coach Kevin Young during the first half against the Houston Cougars at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

For the second time in as many seasons, BYU basketball will be a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars will travel to Denver to take on 11-seed VCU.

KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs VCU. KenPom gives BYU a 54% chance to win with an expected final score of 74-73.

VCU is a top-30 team in the country per KenPom. The Rams rank 30th in KenPom and BYU ranks 24th.

This game will feature strength on strength. BYU's offense ranks 11th nationally in offensive efficiency and VCU ranks 23rd in national defensive efficiency.

BYU should have an advantage in this game on the offensive glass. VCU allows an offensive rebound on 30% of misses which ranks 199th in the country. BYU ranks 77th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing offensive rebounds on 33% of misses.

BYU will need to do two things to win this game: limit turnovers and make open threes. If there is one area where VCU isn't as dominant on defense, it is defending the three-point line. When BYU gets open looks from three, they need to convert. On defense, VCU is one of the most disruptive defenses in terms of creating turnovers. VCU ranks 31st in turnovers forced.