KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball vs Wisconsin for Spot in the Sweet 16

Casey Lundquist | Mar 20, 2025

Mar 20, 2025; Denver, CO, USA; VCU Rams guard Max Shulga (11) defends against Brigham Young Cougars guard Egor Demin (3) during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

BYU basketball is moving on to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. With a convincing win over VCU, the Cougars advance to take on the 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers and the Cougars are two of the best offenses in the sport.

Wisconsin ranks 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. BYU ranks 11th nationally in the same category.

KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU-Wisconsin. KenPom gives BYU a 41% chance to win with an expected final score of 78-76 in favor of the Badgers.

There will be a lot of three-point attempts in this game. Wisconsin shoots 47.9% of its shots from three which ranks 19th nationally. BYU shoots 48.3% of its shots from deep as well, good enough for 15th nationally. Both defenses struggle to prevent threes, so the team that makes the most threes will probably win the game.

Wisconsin is ranked no. 13 nationally in the KenPom rankings, so, on paper, there are not a lot of weaknesses that BYU can attack. However, the Badgers struggle a little bit with physical bigs in the paint and that's where BYU could have an advantage. Wisconsin is one of the worst defenses in the country at blocking shots and they get their shots blocked 10.6% of the time. Keba Keita could be the x-factor in this game.

Additionally, the Badgers have proven a little vulnerable in terms of creating second chance opportunities. Wisconsin ranks 237th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. If BYU can win the rebounding battle, they could create more opportunities against a really good Wisconsin team.