March Madness Preview and Prediction: Five Reasons BYU Will Avoid the Upset against VCU

Joe Wheat | Mar 19, 2025

BYU Basketball's Trey Stewart celebrates a three against Kansas State / BYU Photo

The longest three days of the sports calendar are the three days before BYU plays an NCAA tournament game. The good news is that wait is almost over, as 6-seed BYU takes on the 11-seed VCU Rams. VCU is an imposing matchup despite their double digit-seed - also as evidenced by their 31st national ranking in KenPom. This VCU team can absolutely beat BYU. They are long, tough, and annoying in all the best ways. Will they beat BYU? I wouldn’t bet on it. Here are five reasons why.

1. VCU’s inside pressure exposes them to BYU’s shooters

BYU Basketball's Trey Stewart celebrates a three against Kansas State / BYU Photo

VCU ranks fourth nationally in opponent two-point field goal percentage, which has a lot to do with the way they play defense and who they are playing. The Rams' gamble is that if they swarm the paint and take away the two, their opponents won’t be able to hit the open three. In the Atlantic10 conference, that works. A lot.  The Atlantic10 conference has more teams outside the top 260 in three-point percentage (5) than inside the top 100 (2). Against the two teams in the top 100, George Mason (93) and Dayton (83), VCU allowed a combined 36.6% from three.  That kind of pressure inside the arc will not work against BYU.

BYU ranks 31st in three-point percentage offense and does so shooting the 4th most threes per game of anyone in the tournament. If VCU insists on hounding BYU’s ball handlers inside the three-point line, there will be ample opportunity for kickouts to open shooters. Whether BYU wins or not will just depend on if the ball goes in the hoop.

2. Everything VCU does well, BYU does too

BYU basketball center Keba Keita rises up for a dunk against Kansas State / BYU Photo

As soon as the bracket was revealed, BYU media started firing off social media posts outlining that VCU is in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed, two-point field goal percentage allowed, and offensive rebounding rate. While that may trigger BYU fans struggling “Past Tournament Stress Disorder”, those posts leave out that BYU is exceptional in all those areas on offense. VCU is 1st nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage? BYU ranks 7th on offense. VCU is 4th in two-point defense? BYU is 6th in two-point offense. 9th in offensive rebounding rate? BYU is 31st in defensive rebounding. For every good thing VCU does, BYU has a counter and has proven it against some of the best competition this country has to offer.

3. BYU is both efficient and consistent from three

The most consistent 3pt shooting teams in @MarchMadnessMBB pic.twitter.com/ppcO19FDsy

— JG Trends (@jgtrends) March 18, 2025

Both teams love to shoot the three but are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of efficiency and consistency. BYU and VCU are top 25 in threes taken per game, but BYU does so at a much more efficient rate (37.1% vs 33.5%). VCU can absolutely go nuclear from three, with six games since January 1 shooting over 45%, but they have also shot sub 25% 4 times over that span. On average, though, VCU is closer to 2024 BYU than it is to 2025 BYU in terms of three-point shooting volume and efficiency. Of VCU’s 5 players that have taken at least 100 threes this year, only 2 are shooting better than 34.1%. For reference, 5 out of the 7 BYU players that have taken 100 threes this year are shooting better than 36.5%. If you must bet that one of these teams will have an off-shooting night, go with VCU.

4. BYU has been tested in tougher battles

BYU MBB / Nate Edwards

Not only has BYU seen VCU’s chaos-inducing defense this year, they’ve seen better and won. VCU ranks 25th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, which is certainly impressive. However BYU has played 5 teams with better defenses in the last 3 months including Houston (2), Iowa State (10), Kansas (11), West Virginia (14), and Cincinnati (22). In those games BYU is 6-3 with 2 of the losses coming against 2nd ranked Houston. In the remaining games, BYU is 6-1 and averaging 81.5 points per game, 14 points per game higher than those four team's season averages. All respect to VCU, they are not Houston. No one is.

BYU has also tested their offense against the best. According to Bart Torvik, BYU is 14-9 against top 100 teams and boasts the 8th best offense nationally in those games. Meanwhile, VCU is 7-5 against top 100 teams and ranks 121st in defensive efficiency in those games. That’s not to say VCU plays bad defense. 12 games is a small sample size, after all, but VCU hasn’t faced an offense like BYU’s. BYU has not only faced defenses like VCU's, they've taken a flame thrower to them.

5. Cougar fans, it's time.

BYU basketball star Richie Saunders / BYU Photo

If you aren’t a BYU fan, you will likely roll your eyes at this, but its simply time for BYU to win in March. Everyone has heard the stat about BYU having been to the most NCAA tournaments without ever reaching a Final Four. It’s a cursed stat, to be sure, but BYU has also only had a better than 4% chance of making the Final Four twice based on their seeding in the last 40 years. Coupled with that, BYU has likely only had three teams ever with the requisite talent to make the Final Four. Why does that matter? Because this year makes four.

BYU’s tournament history has been marred with losses simply because past rosters didn’t have the NBA talent to make a run. This year, BYU has three potential NBA players on the roster and an NBA head coach on the sidelines. Past BYU teams weren’t playing their best basketball down the stretch. Last year's BYU squad was the 52nd best team in the country after February 1st. This year’s team is 13th since February 1st. BYU also will be playing a virtual home game in Denver, which, by the way, is the last venue to host a BYU Sweet 16 run. The stars are aligning. This team has the talent, the momentum, and the venue to make a run. Thursday is just the first step.

Prediction: BYU 74 - 67 VCU