What are BYU's Chances to Be a Top Four Seed in the Big 12 Tournament?

How much of BYU's tournament seeding is in its own hands with two games remaining?

Every basketball team in the Big 12 has two games remaining. BYU is currently tied for fourth in the Big 12 tournament standings. However, due to tiebreaker rules, BYU would be the fifth seed in the Big 12 tournament if the season ended today. There are five ways BYU could to be a top four seed in the Big 12 tournament, we broke those down in detail earlier.

Cracking the top four is important since the top four seeds get double byes in the Big 12 tournament. A top four seed would give BYU a free pass to the quarterfinals.

Today, we're breaking down BYU's chances to be a top four seed in the Big 12 tournament based on KenPom win probabilities.

If BYU Goes 2-0...

BYU does not control its own destiny to get in the top four, so going 2-0 over the last two games will not guarantee BYU a spot in the top four. The Cougars need some help - primarily from Texas Tech. BYU would need Texas Tech to lose at least once. There's a 70% chance that Texas Tech will lose at least one game this week according to KenPom. Therefore, if BYU goes 2-0, there's a 70% chance BYU will be a top four seed in the conference tournament.

If BYU Goes 1-1...

Even if BYU drops a game and goes 1-1 this week, there are a few different scenarios that would put them in the top four in the bracket. However, BYU's chances of landing in the top four drop dramatically if they lose a game. If BYU goes 1-1, there's a 25% chance BYU will be a top four seed in the conference tournament.

If BYU Goes 0-2...

There's no path to a top four seed if BYU loses twice. BYU needs to at least go 1-1 this week to have a chance to be in the top four. The odds are in BYU's favor to get at least one win. KenPom gives BYU a 93% chance to win at least one game this week.

What are BYU's Chances to be a Top Four Seed in the Big 12 Tournament?

With two games left, there are five possible scenarios for BYU in terms of seeding for the conference tournament. Here they are ranked by their likelihood of happening.

1. BYU goes 1-1 AND  doesn't get a top four seed: 48%
2. BYU goes 2-0 AND gets a top four seed: 20%
3. BYU goes 1-1 AND gets a top four seed: 20%
4. BYU goes 2-0 AND doesn't get a top four seed: 9%
5. BYU goes 0-2 AND doesn't get a top four seed: 7%

Combining all five scenarios, BYU has a 36% chance to be a top four seed in the Big 12 tournament.

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