Five Reason BYU Football Can Beat Arizona

Joe Wheat | 2 Hours Ago

BYU safety Tommy Prassas returns a fumble for a touchdown against No. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

BYU has yet another massive opportunity on Saturday as they host the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are off to a disappointing 3-2 start after starting the season ranked in the top 25, but are better than their record would indicate. With Big Noon Kickoff in town and the eyes of the nation watching, this is one of the bigger opportunities for BYU football in the last five seasons. Here are five reasons I think BYU answers the call.

Arizona has struggled against the run and BYU is finally healthy at RB

BYU RB LJ Martin / BYU Photo

Arizona has been vulnerable against the run this season, ranking 91st in yards per carry allowed against FBS opponents. Over 18% of opponents rush attempts have gone for at least 10+ yards this season. For reference, BYU is allowing 10+ yard runs on just over 12% of carries, and Tyler Allgeier recorded a 10+ yard rush on 17% of carries in his career. BYU’s rush attack has struggled to get off the ground this year, but if there was ever an opportunity for LJ Martin to return, it's this week. If Martin returns to his 2023 form, I expect BYU’s offense to move the ball as well as they have all season.

Noah Fifita is not the same QB he was a year ago

Noah Fifita has not looked like his 2023 self. Arizona fans have been waiting for him for his break out game this season, and outside of week one, it hasn’t come. This season, he’s completing 61% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has a staggering 8.3% turnover-worthy play rate on play action this season and 10% on passes thrown 10+ yards downfield. Part of the reason for his struggles are that Arizona is not as deep at receiver as they were a year ago.

Tetairoa McMillan is one of the best receivers in the country, and Fifita has a tendency to force him the football even if he is covered. McMillan has been the recipient of 36.6% of all targets this season despite being double covered on almost every play. If BYU can bracket McMillan they will have opportunities to force Fifita into mistakes. BYU is 13th in the country in interceptions forced and is 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense. The combo of Fifita and McMillan must be respected, but if BYU can take that away, it will be tough sledding for Arizona’s pass game.

BYU is the better team in the red zone

BYU running back Enoch Nawahine scores a touchdown against SMU / BYU Photo

Football is a simple game. Most of the time it comes down to who can score when they have the opportunity. BYU was outgained by Baylor and Kansas State, but won both games because BYU scored touchdowns on 5 of their 7 redzone trips while allowing just 3 touchdowns on 6 opponent redzone trips. BYU has scored points on 100% of their redzone trips vs FBS opponents this season, scoring touchdowns on 13 of 18 redzone trips. On defense, BYU has allowed touchdowns on an incredible 43% of red zone trips this season.

Meanwhile, Arizona is 79th in red zone scoring and has scored touchdowns on just 6 of 12 redzone trips this season. This, in large measure, is why Arizona hasn’t scored more than 23 points in a game since week one. I expect Arizona to move the ball between the 20’s, but they will have a hard time beating BYU if they begin trading touchdowns for field goals.

BYU has the advantage in the trenches

BYU defensive line against Baylor / BYU Photo

I think BYU has the advantage along the lines of scrimmage. Arizona is allowing pressures on 33% of Noah Fifita drop-backs, which has contributed to his struggles this season. BYU has allowed pressures on just 25% of Jake Retzlaff’s drop backs despite facing blitzes 42% of the time. If Retzlaff has more time than Fifita, that is advantage BYU. In the run game, Arizona is 95th is defensive success rate on runs and 90th in offensive success rate on runs. Arizona does have a solid stable of running backs, but with BYU’s running backs finally healthy, that matchup may be closer to even.

The game is being played at LES

Lavell Edwards Stadium - BYU vs SIU / BYU Photo

Any Big12 team is going to have a tough time coming into Lavell Edwards Stadium and winning. BYU announced their fourth straight sellout dating back to last season while student tickets to the game sold out in 35 minutes. With Big Noon Kickoff in town, a raucous environment and multiple 4 and 5 star football and basketball recruits in attendance, vibes are just too good for Arizona to stop if the game starts rolling in BYU’s direction.

Prediction

BYU 31-20 Arizona