2023 BYU Football Schedule: Likely Wins, Likely Losses, & Tossups

A way-too-early look at the most winnable games on BYU's 2023 schedule

On Tuesday, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his preseason SP+ college football rankings - BYU came in last in the Big 12 at no. 62. BYU's 2023 opponents ranked as high as no. 9 in the SP+ rankings (Texas) and as low as no. 124 (Sam Houston).

Using SP+ as our guide, we'll take a way-too-early look at the games on BYU's 2022 schedule that are likely wins, likely losses, and likely tossups. To be clear, preseason rankings are far form perfect and should not be treated as gospel. They will change materially as the season progresses. They do, however, serve as a directional measure for BYU's strength schedule in 2023.

Let's start with the likely wins. For our purposes, any home game against teams ranked 15 spots or lower than the Cougars will be considered a likely win. Any away game against teams ranked 25 spots or lower will also be considered a likely win.

Likely Wins

vs Sam Houston - Saturday Sep. 2

BYU kicks off the 2023 season at home against Sam Houston. Sam Houston moves to the FBS ranks in 2023.

2022 Record: 5-4

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #124

vs Southern Utah - Saturday Sep. 9

BYU hosts in-state FCS foe SUU in early September. This game will count towards bowl eligibility since SUU is the lone FCS team on BYU's schedule. Only one FCS win can count towards bowl eligibility, that is why Sam Houston's promotion to FBS is important.

2022 Record: 5-6

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: NA

Total likely wins: 2

Looking at BYU's schedule from this lens highlights how difficult the 2023 schedule could be. BYU ranks last in the Big 12 in the SP+ rankings implying every conference game will be a challenge. The Cougars also have to travel to SEC country during the nonconference slate. By our categorizations of likely wins, only two games can be counted on as wins in 2023. 

Next, let's look at likely losses. Opposite of the likely wins, any home game against teams ranked 25 spots or higher than the Cougars will be considered a likely loss. Any away game against teams ranked 15 spots or higher will also be considered a likely loss.

Likely Losses

@ Arkansas - Saturday Sep. 16

BYU travels to SEC country to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas beat BYU in a shootout in 2022. The Razorbacks are ranked in the top 30 of SP+ after a winning season in 2022. The Razorbacks don't return a lot of production in 2023, but they do return quarterback KJ Jefferson. Jefferson is the primary reason for the Razorbacks' top 30 ranking, and the 

2022 Record: 7-6

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #29

@ TCU - Saturday Oct. 14

BYU and TCU renew an old Mountain West rivalry in mid October. This is another tough road game for BYU, TCU is coming off arguably the best season in program history. The Horned Frogs are ranked in the top 20 in the first SP+ rankings. Maintaining that ranking will be a challenge - TCU has to replace the following:

- Starting quarterback and Heisman finalist Max Duggan

- Two leading rushers

- Three leading receivers

If the Horned Frogs can reload in 2023, this will be a difficult game to win.

2022 Record: 13-2

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #19

vs Texas Tech - Saturday Oct. 21

Texas Tech is a program on the rise in the Big 12. The Red Raiders concluded the 2022 season with a dominant bowl win over Ole Miss. This game is right on the border of a likely loss and a tossup, but it narrowly fits into the likely loss category. This is a game that could turn into a tossup by the time it kicks off.

2022 Record: 8-5

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #35

@ Texas - Saturday Oct. 28

The Longhorns are viewed as one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this season - returning production is a big reason why. The Longhorns return 74% of the production from a team that went 8-5 last season. 74% returning production ranks 19th in the country.

The Longhorns were better than their record suggested last season - all five of their losses last season were one-score games.

Regardless of their history of falling short of preseason expectations, the game at Texas will likely be one of the most difficult on BYU's 2023 schedule. Texas might actually be back in 2023.

2022 Record: 8-5

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #9

vs Oklahoma - Saturday Nov. 18

Oklahoma will be one of the most talented teams that BYU faces in 2023. Time will tell whether the Sooners will be able to put that talent together this season. Last year, the Sooners went an uncharacteristic 6-7. SP+ has the Sooners in the top 15 to start the season.

2022 Record: 6-7

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #14

@ Oklahoma State - Saturday Nov. 25

BYU closes the season on the road at Oklahoma State. That game looks a lot different in 2023 than it would have in 2021 when Oklahoma State was the Big 12 runner-up. Oklahoma State limped to the finish line in 2022 losing six of its last eight games. The Cowboys have arguably lost more to the transfer portal than any team in college football. Looking ahead to 2023, Oklahoma State ranks 89th in returning production and will feature a lot of new faces on a defense that ranked in the bottom half of the Big 12 last season.

BYU will be playing its tenth consecutive game against a Power Five opponent. That doesn't bode well for BYU's depth - the Cougars still need to elevate their roster to endure a Power Five schedule.

2022 Record: 7-6

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #34

Total likely losses: 6

If BYU is going to reach a bowl game in 2023, it is going to need to turn some of these likely losses into wins.

Let's look at the tossup games on BYU's schedule. By process of elimination, these are the games that don't fit within either the likely win or likely loss criteria.

Tossups

@ Kansas - Saturday Sep. 23

The first conference game of the Big 12 era comes on the road at Kansas. A trip to Lawrence in the Big 12 isn't what it used to be - Kansas is coming off its best season in the last decade. This will be a tough game to win on the road.

2022 Record: 6-7

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #57

vs Cincinnati - Friday Sep. 29

BYU's first Big 12 home game will come against fellow newcomer Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been one of the most consistent programs in the country over the last few years, but the data suggests they could regress in 2023. Cincinnati ranks 124th in returning production, and the Bearcats lost head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin.

If BYU is going to qualify for a bowl game in 2023, the home game against Cincinnati is looking more and more like a must-win game.

2022 Record: 9-4

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #43

@ West Virginia - Saturday Nov. 4

West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat this season. The Mountaineers have underperformed relative to expectations during his tenure. This game could determine BYU's bowl eligibility in 2023.

2022 Record: 5-7

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #50

vs Iowa State - Saturday Nov. 11

Like the home game against Cincinnati, this game looks like a must-win game if BYU wants to reach bowl eligibility in 2023. The Cyclones won just one conference game in 2022.

2022 Record: 4-8

2023 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #45

Total tossups: 4

If you have been keeping track, that is two likely wins, six likely losses, and four tossups. If BYU is going to reach bowl eligibility, it either needs to win all the tossup games or turn some of the "likely losses" into wins.

It is important to remember that preseason rankings will change dramatically after a few weeks of games. For example, before BYU blew out Navy in 2020, ESPN FPI gave BYU only a 28% chance to win. If those two teams would have played towards the end of the season, FPI would have given BYU an ~85% chance to win. The SP+ rankings will move a lot after the first few weeks of the season.

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