Analytical Predictions for BYU vs Liberty

The analytics expect a close game between BYU and Liberty

Following a home loss to Arkansas, BYU is looking for a bounce-back win on the road at Liberty. Today, we look at what some of the analytics are saying about BYU's chances to beat the Flames on the road.

SP+

SP+, a predictive model managed by ESPN's Bill Connelly, expects a close game between BYU and Liberty. SP+ gives BYU a 52% chance to win with an expected final score of 28-27 in favor of the Cougars.

ESPN FPI

FPI is slightly more optimistic about BYU's chances than SP+. FPI gives BYU a 54% chance to win.

Odds and Betting Line

As of this writing, BYU is favored by 6.5 points and the money line as at BYU -250. At -250, the implied probability of a BYU win is 71.4%.

CFB Graphs

Parker from CFB Graphs does an excellent job covering college football from an analytical perspective. His model gives BYU a 74% chance to win with an expected final score of 36-27. Most interesting, is his preview of BYU's defense against Liberty's offense. 

BYU's defensive struggles have been well documented after the Cougars allowed 52 points against the Razorbacks. Liberty has had their own share of struggles on offense. The Flames rank 118 out of 131 FBS teams in offensive success rate, and their passing success rate on offense is in the bottom 10 teams in the country. If there was ever an opportunity for BYU's defense to return to form, it would be this weekend, at least on paper.

BYU @ LIBERTY pic.twitter.com/99EajGHPgq

— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 18, 2022

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