Best and Worst-Case Conference Realignment Scenarios for BYU

It's been over two weeks since UCLA and USC left the PAC-12 for the Big Ten. The USC-UCLA move initiated rumors of more conference realignment. Those rumors,

It's been over two weeks since UCLA and USC left the PAC-12 for the Big Ten. The USC-UCLA move initiated rumors of more conference realignment. Those rumors, however, have been quite over the last week. Today, we look at the best-case, worst-case, and most likely conference realignment scenarios for the BYU football program.

Best-Case Scenario

It's not a secret that every college football program would love to be invited to the Big Ten or the SEC. For BYU, that's not a realistic best-case scenario. Frankly, it's not a realistic expectation for multiple programs that are anxiously awaiting an invitation. 

BYU is going to be in the Big 12. Therefore, the best-case realignment scenario for BYU would be one in which the Big 12 is secure in the college football landscape. That includes access to the College Football Playoff beyond 2026. Additionally, the best-case scenario for the Big 12 would include a TV deal that pays more per school than the ACC and PAC-12.

So how can the Big 12 make our best-case scenario a reality? By poaching schools from the PAC-12. In the very best-case scenario, that would include both Oregon and Washington.

In the days following the USC-UCLA move, both CBS Sports and The Athletic reported that the Big 12 was aggressively pursuing expansion. CBS described the Big 12 as being in "deep discussions to add multiple Pac-12 programs." A day later, The Athletic confirmed the report, saying the Big 12 "is having 'serious' talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly."

A few days later, Pete Thamel described those reports as "overstated". "The extent of the Big 12's discussions with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah were overstated in reports this week were overstated," Thamel wrote. "But there's certainly been back channel conversations and interest."

For now, conference realignment rumors have slowed down while the PAC-12 negotiates its new media rights deal in an exclusive 30-day window with ESPN. 

Adding any combination of PAC-12 schools would dissolve the current PAC-12, and position the Big 12 firmly in front of the PAC-12 for the long-term. It would also give the Big 12 four time zones - something that would be very attractive to TV partners.

Worst-Case Scenario

In the worst-case scenario for BYU, the PAC-12 would poach Big 12 schools and exclude BYU. According to multiple reports, this doesn't appear likely. Until the dust has settled, however, it's not impossible.

Most Likely Scenario

Even after a quiet week, it still feels most likely that some combination of PAC-12 schools will join the Big 12. Reputable outlets have reported on the discussion between the Big 12 and those PAC-12 schools, and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark didn't avoid the topic at Big 12 media days. "I think it's fair to say I've received a lot of phone calls," Yormark said when asked about his pursuit of PAC-12 schools. "Nothing is imminent, but we're working hard to make sure the Big 12 is positioned in the best possible way."

Yormark's response came on the heels of his opening statement, where he said the Big 12 "is open for business." Yormark continued, "We will leave no stone unturned to drive value for the conference."

Max Olson of The Athletic, who was at the forefront of reporting on Big 12 expansion last year, joined Sic 'Em 365 Radio this week. Olson shared his thoughts on his expectations for the next shifts in conference realignment. 

"It's tempting to say 'maybe things have settled down here, we're waiting on Notre Dame' and things like that. But I think there could be more change here soon, I really do," Olson said. "It could be more of a question of what does the Big 12 want to do, and can they pull it off...For those PAC-12 schools in the PAC-12 South that are kind of in a weird position here, I wonder can they sit and wait for this 30-day window on getting some information on a TV deal with ESPN or whoever. Can they sit back and try to gather more information on that? Or is this kind of a moment where you have to think about doing something pretty aggressive here and getting out of the conference?"

Later, Olson added, "There certainly could be things that happen here pretty quickly if those schools are willing to defect."

In terms of college football realignment, the upcoming weeks will be pivotal. If the PAC-12 TV payout projections are underwhelming, the Big 12 will have an opportunity to poach numerous schools.