Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for BYU in the CFP Rankings After Win Over Utah

Casey Lundquist | Nov 11, 2024

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion returns a kickoff for a touchdown against Utah / BYU Photo

Through nine games, BYU is 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big 12 play. The Cougars have everything to play for as we approach the end of the regular season. Tuesday is an important day for BYU - the College Football Playoff committee will unveil the second College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season. Last week, BYU came in at no. 9 in the first CFP rankings. Today, we're breaking down the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, and our prediction for BYU's ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The Worst-Case Scenario

The committee didn't respect BYU's accomplishments in the first iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings. BYU's resume was better than at least four teams ranked in front of them - it didn't matter. The committee did not show much respect for BYU or the rest of the Big 12.

If this committee didn't respect BYU's resume before a win over Utah, it's unlikely that the committee will give BYU much benefit of the doubt for a narrow win over rival Utah.

However, both Miami and Georgia lost on Saturday, giving BYU an opportunity to move up.

In the worst-case scenario, we think BYU lands at no. 8 and is either leapfrogged by a team previously ranked behind them, or one of the two teams that lost in front of BYU will remain ahead of the Cougars in the rankings.

After a blowout win over LSU, Alabama is officially a threat to leapfrog BYU in the rankings. Even in the worst-case scenario, however, we don't foresee the committee ranking two-loss Alabama ahead of BYU at this point. Though that could happen down the road.

Worst-Case Scenario Ranking: No. 8

The Best-Case Scenario

This weekend in college football proved how hard it is to remain undefeated. Miami lost to a mediocre Georgia Tech team. Indiana narrowly defeated 5-4 Michigan. Michigan was the best team Indiana has faced this season, and the Hoosiers didn't look nearly as dominant as they did through the first nine games. If the committee truly starts from scratch every week, they could give BYU more benefit of the doubt for remaining undefeated. After all, wins should matter, not quality losses.

In the best-case scenario, BYU would surpass both Georgia and Miami who lost. Additionally, another look at BYU's resume could be justification to move them ahead of a team like Penn State.

Best-Case Scenario Ranking: No. 6

Prediction

We think both Miami and Georgia will fall below BYU in the CFP rankings. Notre Dame beat a horrible Florida State team this weekend - we don't think that's enough to leapfrog BYU. Alabama's two losses will preclude them from leapfrogging BYU at this point as well. That would put BYU at no. 7 in the CFP rankings.

Prediction: No. 7