BYU Football: Five Reasons for Optimism Against Oregon

There are plenty of reasons to be confident that BYU walks out with their second straight top 25 win. Here are a few.

What a time to be a BYU fan. The #12 Cougars ride into Eugene, OR for their second straight matchup against a top 25 opponent in the #25 Oregon Ducks. Autzen Stadium will be the focal point of the college football world at 2 pm MT on Saturday. Here are five reasons BYU fans should be optimistic against Oregon.

1. The Autzen hype is overblown

Let me be clear, Autzen Stadium is certainly a difficult place to play. Oregon has won 28-straight home non-conference games. That doesn’t happen by accident. However, of those 28, 4 have been P5 opponents, and only 3 have been ranked (the most recent was MSU in 2014). BYU has a propensity to bust these kinds of streaks. Just ask Nebraska and Wisconsin. As of Thursday, over 2,500 tickets have gone unsold, and a large BYU contingent is expected. Add it all together and going to Eugene may not be as daunting as what’s been advertised.

2. Jaren Hall will have time to throw

Oregon’s pass rush was projected to be the strength of the defense, but they have struggled to get going so far this season. The Ducks are currently the 85th ranked pass rush according to PFF, and have tallied just 3 sacks on 70 drop backs. Meanwhile, BYU is second nationally in pass protection, much to the delight of BYU QB Jaren Hall.

Jaren Hall has been dominant from a clean pocket this season, completing 74% of his passes for 478 yards and all three of his touchdowns. If BYU can keep Hall upright, he is poised to carve up the Oregon secondary.

3. Oregon’s secondary is unproven

Oregon has talent in the defensive backfield, but they have struggled to put it together on the field. The Ducks are currently ranked 128th in coverage by PFF after getting lit up by Georgia QB Stetson Bennett for 368 yards on nearly 12 yards per attempt. Eastern Washington’s box score was less than impressive since they were plagued with drops and poor quarterback play, but their receivers were able to get open.

BYU could be without Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney for the second straight week, but it may not matter. The Cougars have a more than capable WR corps and one of the best deep ball passers in college football running the offense. If current trends continue, it could be a big day for Jaren Hall and co.

4. Bo Nix struggles to throw downfield

Bo Nix has struggled this season throwing the ball down the field. Nix is just 5 for 13 on throws of 10 yards or more with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. As such, Oregon has done whatever it can to get the ball out of Nix’s hands quickly and let their receivers make plays. 70% of Nix’s throws this season have traveled under 10 yards, and 87% of his passing yards have come after the catch. As such, BYU must be able to tackle if it wants to hold Oregon’s offense in check.

The good news is this is an area BYU has exceled at so far this season. BYU has missed just 12 tackles through two games and are coming off their best tackling performance since 2015. If this is what the Cougar defense will look like going forward, the Ducks will struggle to move the ball through the air.

5. BYU’s Physicality

Oregon has struggled lately with physical football teams. The Ducks have lost four of their last five games against FBS opponents dating back to last season, giving up an average of 213 yards rushing in those games. Despite BYUs struggles to run the ball against Baylor, this team is built to run the ball between the tackles.

The Cougars have averaged 227.5 yards rushing against their last 6 FBS opponents and returned most of their offensive line from a year ago. We will see whether BYU’s rushing attack is closer to their performance against USF or against Baylor, but based on what we’ve seen from this unit, I would put my money on the former.

What will happen

Make no mistake, this might be BYU’s toughest game left on the schedule. Oregon is supremely talented, and Autzen is an notoriously difficult place to play. Oregon will rely heavily on running backs Mar’keise Irving and Sean Dollars to make plays in both the run and pass game. They will force BYU to play sideline to sideline and tackle them in space. The Cougs will have to play assignment sound and disciplined football to limit the Oregon attack.

BYU’s success on offense will come down to whether or not they can run the football. Oregon is more than capable against the run, and if they can hold BYU to under three yards per carry for the second straight week, the Cougars will struggle to put up points.

My personal feeling is BYU’s experience in these situations will show on Saturday. Jaren Hall will limit turnovers and exploit Oregon’s secondary with well-timed shots down the field. BYU’s offense will redeem themselves and runs for 150 yards+.

Oregon will move the ball well. They utilize their elite athletes to break off the occasional chunk play, but in the end, Bo Nix makes a crucial mistake that paves the way to a BYU win.

BYU 28-24 Oregon