BYU Football: Getting to Know the Foe and Prediction

The most underrated rivalry in college sports kicks off tonight. Here is what you need to know about the Utes.

The Holy War, the Deseret Duel, the Instate Game, or as we refer to it in the Wheat household, the Family Estrangement. Whatever you call it, it's most underrated rivalry in the sport and it's happening tonight. Utah’s success in this game is well documented, and we will refer you to Ute twitter to recount its recent history. As far as the 101st meeting between the two schools, though, here is what you need to know about the Utes. 

Utah Defense

Stop me if you've heard this before: Utah is really good on defense. Utah has a player at all 3 levels that has superstar potential. LB Devin Lloyd and DB Clark Phillips III are generational talents for the Utes at their respective positions which is saying a lot. Lloyd had 12 tackles and an INT a week ago in Utah's win over Weber State and is a future day-one NFL draft pick. Phillips III was a former Ohio State commit, who while young, can win any 1-on-1 battle he faces on the outside and DE Mika Tafua is the anchor of Utah’s always stout defensive line. Both will have their names called often on Saturday night. 

While the Utah defense is imposing, they are not without flaws. Utah’s pass defense was shaky a year ago, and and gave up 213 yards and a touchdown to Weber State quarterback Bronson Barron last week. Utah is always effective against the run, but there are some depth questions along the defensive line behind Tafua and Hauati Pututau. Regardless, we have enough history here to expect tough, physical football, and we should expect nothing less tonight.

Utah Offense

Charlie Brewer might be the best QB Utah has had since Brian Johnson. That is no slight against Tyler Huntley. That’s just a testament to how good Brewer can be. He fits everything Utah wants at QB. He is pinpoint accurate, doesn’t force throws downfield, and elusive enough to hurt BYU if run lanes are open. Utah comes into the season with a solid trio of transfer running backs, but the go-to man seems to be Cincinnati transfer Tavion Thomas, who more closely resembles a 6’2 bowling ball than a human being. 

Utah is thin but effective at wide receiver, led by Jr. Britain Covey who might be old enough to have played in this game the last time BYU won it. The strength of this team, though, is the tight ends. They are big, athletic, and sure handed. Brant Kuithe is the marquee name among the group, but San Diego transfer Dalton Kincaid may be best of the bunch. Their offensive line is a question mark following a rough outing against Weber State and a slew of injuries during fall camp. Two of their three missing starters are vying for a comeback this week, though, and Nick Ford and co. can move some weight.

Prediction

What's so intriguing about this edition of the rivalry is that it’s a game of mirror image matchups. Puka Nacua vs Clark Phillips III: the battle of young blue chip recruits. Tyler Allgeier vs Devin Lloyd: The clash of the All Americans. Blake Freeland vs Mika Tafua: The engagement of the emerging stars. In all, this might be the most talent either team has ever had in the rivalry.

While Utah is talented, they are not unbeatable. To pull off the upset BYU will need play aggressive, mistake-free football. Utah has forced 29 BYU turnovers during their 9-game winning streak. 9 of them have gone for touchdowns, and in 3 cases, are the difference between BYU winning the game and losing. It sounds obvious because it is. You can’t spot the other team points and expect to win. That said, BYU will need to take shots. BYU has the weapons to exploit Utah’s secondary and a strong enough offensive line to hang with Utah's stout front, but a game of 4-yard gains favors Utah.

When Utah has the ball, it will come down to 3rd and short. BYUs defense is strong enough on the backend to keep big plays at a premium for Charlie Brewer. What that leads to is a steady dose of intermediate routes and inside runs. I fully expect Utah to be able to pick up 4 yards per play on first and second down. It’s what they do. The key will be what BYU can do on 3rd and 2. BYU struggled in those situations at times last week, but so, quite frankly did Utah.

As far as a prediction goes, this one’s tough for the BYU fan in me. Whether we like it or not, there is a talent gap, and everyone of those mirror image matchups I alluded to likely favors Utah on paper. My head is picking Utah, but my heart says BYU, and 98 Degrees demands that I be true to my heart. The quarterback battle isn't as lopsided as some up north would have you believe. 

Brewer and Jaren Hall turned in very similar outings last week with Hall’s coming against a much more talented defense. Hall wasn’t other worldly, but he showed he has a big arm and top-end speed. The flow of the game will dictate that he be more active in the run game to take the attention off Tyler Allgeier and BYUs outside weapons. If he can succeed, BYU will be able to score enough points to pull off the upset, sending Provo into a state of euphoria that hasn’t been seen since the city of Enoch.

BYU 31 – 28 Utah