BYU-Arizona Preview and Prediction

Get to know foe Arizona ahead of BYUs opening match up in Las Vegas

With the swarm of BIGXII expansion news surrounding BYU this week, some of you may have forgotten that BYU actually plays football today. The Cougars take on the Arizona Wildcats live from Las Vegas at 7:30 PST on ESPN and it feels like Christmas Morning. BYU football is back y’all. The stage is set. The atmosphere will be electric. Let’s play some football. Here is what you need to know about the Wildcats.

Overview

Arizona is a program that is shrouded in mystery. The Wildcats come in riding a 12-game losing skid and gave the old coaching regime the hook last December. Head coach Jedd Fisch is the new headliner in town and brought in Seattle Seahawks assistant Brennan Carroll and former Michigan defensive coordinator Don “Dr. Blitz” Brown to be his offensive and defensive play callers respectively.

While promising hires, they inherit a difficult situation at Arizona. The roster has gone through immense turnover since the start of last season, losing 12 players to the transfer portal, including 2020 starting QB Grant Gunnell to Memphis. The staff has done a great job bringing in a slew of new transfers, especially on defense. Notable names include former Notre Dame CB Isaiah Rutherford and 2019 MAC defensive player of the year Treshaun Howard from Western Michigan.

The Wildcats on Defense

New defensive coordinator Don Brown is a national treasure and probably the best interview in the sport. Brown sends a blitz over 60% of the time (hence the nickname), and talks about creating chaos so much, you’d think he’s trying to take over Gotham City. Arizona’s defense returns talented CB Christian Roland-Wallace and DE Jalen Harris, both of whom showed flashes on an abysmalv 2020 defense that gave up 473 yards of offense per game.

Looking at last year, though, is virtually useless in analyzing what the Wildcats defense will look like this year. Don Brown himself stopped watching Arizona’s 2020 film after a few plays because its “completely different” from what he will do. So, what can BYU expect with so little film to go off of? “I can assure you this,” says Dr. Blitz “They know we’re coming over the walls.”

Wildcats on Offense

The Wildcat offense showed promise in 2020 against formidable defenses such as USC when led by Grant Gunnell, who is now walking in Memphis. Enter 2020 back up QB Will Plummer and Washington State transfer Gunner Cruz and its clear no one knows what to expect, including, it seems, head coach Jedd Fisch. He announced last week that Arizona would be trotting out both QBs as his starters in Sin City. Neither quarterback has looked particularly impressive in limited action in 2020, with both failing to eclipse 5 yards an attempt. Reports coming out of fall camp are underwhelming, and as the saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you probably don’t have any.

The offensive line was porous a year ago, giving up 18 sacks and 34 tackles for loss in just 5 games. Improvement is expected, as all 5 starters from a year ago are now one year older and wiser too. The skill positions are talented, headlined by WR Stanley Berryhill III and RB Michael Wiley. Depth is an issue at both positions, though, bringing back only one receiver who had more than 20 catches in 2020 while Wiley was the only returning running back with more than 10 carries a year ago.

Prediction

By all accounts, at least off the field, Jedd Fisch has been the right hire for Arizona. He’s been an infusion of life into a program with a proud fanbase who has been waiting over 2 years for a product on the field they can be excited about. He’s brought beloved alumni back into the program and is building a very promising 2022 recruiting class that features multiple 4-star athletes. Unfortunately, none of those individuals will be able to help Arizona come Saturday.

Arizona is going to have a difficult time moving the ball with not one, but two inexperienced quarterbacks and an offensive line who ranked 119th in sacks allowed a year ago. This may be the deepest cornerback room BYU has ever had, allowing BYU defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki the freedom to be more aggressive than he has been in years past with his talented stable of linebackers.

On the flip side of the ball, BYU historically struggles on offense in opening games, eclipsing 30 points just once in the Kalani Sitake era. This, however, is an offense that will look a lot more like the 2020 BYU model than any other version we’ve seen. BYU returns a thousand-yard rusher in Tyler Allgeier and a tight end in Isaac Rex who both scored more touchdowns in 2020 than Arizona’s entire roster combined.

On defense, Arizona’s creative blitzing scheme will force BYU QB Jaren Hall into quick decision making. If he can efficiently get the ball into the hands of his playmakers on the outside this could get ugly fast. If BYUs front struggles to hold the line, Arizona will be able to stick around longer than expected. The issue here is that to successfully run the high-pressure scheme Don Brown wants to run at Arizona, he will need to play mostly man coverage. On paper, Arizona does not have enough bodies to man up on Neil Pauu, Gunner Romney, Puka Nacua, Dallin Holker, Isaac Rex, and Tyler Allgeier, all of whom have shown they can play at a high level on big stages.

In short, if you’re looking to make some money this weekend on your trip to Vegas, I would put your money on the Cougs. BYU will likely start slow while they adapt to Arizona’s new look systems, but adjustments will be made, and BYUs physicality will weigh on Arizona allowing the Cougars to pull away in the third quarter.

BYU 31 -13 Arizona