Charting BYU's Path to Victory in All Twelve Regular Season Games

Joe Wheat | Aug 13, 2024

Expectations are low for the BYU football program in 2024. Most sportsbooks have BYU’s win total at around 4.5 and BYU currently does not have a starting quarterback. There are certainly concerns about this BYU football team and questions they can only answer come September. However, while the schedule is challenging, there is no Georgia or Ohio State on BYU's schedule. In isolation, there is a path to win every game on the schedule. Will BYU actually go undefeated in 2024? Of course not. Will they even make a bowl game? Vegas also says no. But BYU is in the middle of fall camp, install is ahead of schedule, and guys are flying around, so let's chart BYU's path to victory in every regular season game.

8/31 vs Southern Illinois

The Salukis are coming off an 8-4 season and are currently ranked #11 in the FCS preseason top 25. None of that should matter, as BYU is 18-0 against FCS opponents by an average score of 48-10. If BYU is unable to win here, the rest of this article is as irrelevant as a lifeguard at the Olympics.

9/6 @ SMU

BYU defeats SMU in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl / BYU Photo

SMU is coming off a 10-2 season and sits at No. 27 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. They are also 3-31 all time against Big 12 teams and haven’t beaten a P4 team other than TCU since 2011. BYU fans learned last season that the transition to a power conference is a difficult one, and the Cougars beat a Rhett Lashlee led SMU team two seasons ago with 47 yards passing. BYU has won in much tougher road environments under Kalani Sitake, and if BYU is better on offense than they were last year, the Mustangs are on upset alert.

9/14 @ Wyoming

Lavell Edwards once said that he would rather lose and live in Provo than win and live in Laramie. BYU has enjoyed the best of both worlds, having won 9 straight over the Cowboys with just four losses in Laramie since 1974. Wyoming beat a Big 12 team in Laramie as recently as last season, but the Cowboys will be breaking in a new head coach and are ranked 99th nationally according to ESPN’s FPI. War Memorial Stadium or not, BYU should win this game.

9/21 vs #18 Kansas State

The Wildcats are ranked no. 18 in the AP preseason poll and are one of the trendy picks to win the Big 12 in 2024. They are also 108th nationally in offensive returning production according to Bill Connelly, and they come to Provo in what will be freshman QB Avery Johnson’s first career conference road start. Winning in Provo in September is a tough ask for any quarterback, especially in whiteout conditions as BYU honors the 1996 football season.

BYU is 14-2 in the month of September over the last four seasons and has won four straight September home games vs ranked opponents dating back to 2019. Assuming Jay Hill’s defense takes a step forward in year two, BYU could win a rock fight against the Wildcats.

9/28 @ Baylor

Baylor is in a tricky spot right now. The Bears' 2021 Big 12 title feels like a generation ago as the Bears come off a 3-9 season while replacing both coordinators this offseason. Dave Aranda is known as a defensive mastermind, but his unit finished 120th in rush defense last year. Meanwhile, BYU’s backfield of Gerry Bohanon and LJ Martin might be BYU’s best pure rushing backfield since Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams. Winning in Waco is tough, but there is an argument to be made that Baylor comes in to the game with a 1-3 record while fans clamor for a new head coach. BYU could take this one in a Gerry Bohanon revenge game.

10/12 vs #21 Arizona

Few programs had a more tumultuous offseason than Arizona. Former head coach Jedd Fisch led the Wildcats to just their second 10-win season since 1998, but his departure to Washington back in January led to 28 Arizona players entering the transfer portal. New head coach Brent Brennan was able to retain the services of star players Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan and added enough talent from the transfer portal to earn a spot in the AP preseason top 25.

History teaches, though, that programs that rebuild through the transfer portal take time to mesh. Of the top 25 teams in 247’s 2023 transfer rankings, 16 finished outside the final AP poll, while 9 finished 2023 with losing records. Only one of the nine programs that did finish in the AP top 25 (Louisville) did so with a first year head coach. Meanwhile, one of the strengths of this BYU team is continuity on offense while most of the projected two-deep on defense has played at least a full year in the Jay Hill system.  

Fifita and McMillan are about as dynamic of a duo as there is in college football, but there has been too much turnover at Arizona, especially on defense, to think they will walk out of Lavell Edwards Stadium with an automatic "W" on homecoming.

10/18 vs #17 Oklahoma State

BYU Photo

Every BYU season since 2018 has featured a revenge win, and Oklahoma State is a prime candidate for 2024. Jake Retzlaff and company took the preseason no. 17 Cowboys to double overtime in Stillwater last season and return just about everyone on offense. The Cowboys return 80% of their returning production on defense from last year, but that unit ranked 122nd in total defense and surrendered at least 30 points in 8 games last season. If BYU has improved at all on offense and can hold Ollie Gordon to fewer than 5 touchdowns, BYU has a real shot to pull off the shocker on a short week.

10/26 @ UCF

Fellow Big 12 newcomer UCF is considered a dark-horse candidate to make the Big 12 title game this season, but will have to do so with a lot of knew faces on offense. The Knights rank 121st in returning offensive production and will be starting a familiar face in KJ Jefferson at QB. BYU’s defense had arguably its best performance of last season against Jefferson, holding him to a 37.7 QBR while forcing two turnovers and a season-high four sacks. UCF’s defense struggled last season, ranking 126th against the run. A cross-country trip to the Bounce House will not be easy, but the Cougars may be able to keep up with a rushing tandem of LJ Martin and Gerry Bohanon.

11/9 @ #12 Utah

BYU Photo

Now we walk into the hornet’s nest. No one is giving BYU a chance in this game, which makes sense. Utah brings back two-time Pac-12 champion Cam Rising at QB and hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in total defense since 2016. They have been one of the most consistent programs in the country under Kyle Whittingham and have dominated the rivalry in the Pac-12 era.

However…

Utah was devastated by injuries last season will need to show that they have fully recovered. Gerry Bohanon’s addition to BYU was largely met with skepticism as his time between starts will be 686 days. Cam Rising will have gone 606 days between starts. He will have to get up to speed quickly behind an offensive line that ranked 131st nationally in pass blocking according to PFF last season. Utah's WR group is the best in a decade, but Rising is a limited passer who has completed 47% of his career passes 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and now is expected to have limited mobility after a devastating knee injury that sidelined him for all of 2023.

On defense, Utah ranks 79th nationally in defensive returning production following the departure of stars Jonah Elliss, Levani Damuni, Sione Vaki, and Cole Bishop. Those tasked with replacing those stars have varying levels of experience and injury history. There is no shortage of talent on this Utah defense, but it is not as experienced as in years past.

BYU was certainly dominated by Utah in the independence era on a macro level, but blowouts have not been a regular part of this rivalry over the last 20 years. On paper, there is no reason BYU should beat Utah in 2024, but rivalry games aren’t played on paper, and Utah isn’t a team without questions.

11/16 vs #22 Kansas

Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal are likely the best backfield in the Big 12, but will they be healthy on November 16th when they come to Provo? Daniels has played two games after October 8th the last two seasons and missed all of October 2021 with an injury as well. Behind Daniels are two freshmen in Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall with a combined two games of experience. BYU showed well at Kansas last season despite the loss, and has plenty of experience with new Kansas OC Jeff Grimes. Football seasons are a war of attrition, especially in late November. If BYU wins that war, they have a real shot at winning this game.

11/23 @ Arizona State

BYU Photo

Arizona State was projected to finish last this season in the Big 12 preseason media poll. The Sun Devils finished 3-9 last season and rank 79th in preseason SP+. 20 of Arizona States 22 projected starters in 2024 are former transfers, and as we referenced with Arizona, transfer-laden teams tend to underperform due to a lack of continuity. Who knows what Arizona State will look like in late November, but if the season spirals on ASU like it did last year and BYU is fighting for bowl eligibility, this is about as sure of an FBS win as BYU has on their schedule, even if it is in Tempe.

11/30 vs Houston

BYU wraps up the season against a second consecutive team picked to finish below them in the Big 12 preseason poll. First year head coach Willie Fritz took Tulane to an NY6 game two years ago and now looks to rebuild a Houston program which finished 4-8 last season. Fritz will be relying on 14 newcomers to rebuild a defense that finished 107th last season in yards allowed per game. Again, games in November tend to be a war of attrition, but BYU has the deeper roster, and a late November game in Lavell Edwards stadium favors the Cougars.