ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Football at Baylor, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 21, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) fakes a handoff to running back Miles Davis (4) against the Kansas State Wildcats during the first quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program opened conference play in dominant fashion on Saturday night. BYU will take its perfect record on the road next week to take on the Baylor Bears. The Bears lost a heartbreaker to Colorado in their Big 12 opener. FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Baylor and updated the projection for the rest of BYU's 2024 season.

FPI gives BYU an 52.2% chance to beat Baylor on Saturday night, up from 34.0% in the preseason. FPI also gives BYU a reasonable chance to win the Big 12. More on that below.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

FPI's projected record for BYU shot up all the way to 8.3-3.7 after week four. The Cougars have a 97.4% chance to reach bowl eligibility according to FPI. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Baylor - 52.2% (Up from 34.0%)
• Arizona - 75.0% (Up from 33.8%)
• Oklahoma State - 42.9% (Up from 30.2%)
• UCF - 26.0% (Up from 22.7%)
• Utah - 35.3% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 58.1% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 52.6% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 85.1% (Up from 62.6%)

BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped up 19 spots in the FPI rankings to 37 after beating Kansas State. Kansas State was the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 before losing to BYU. The Cougars are ranked 7th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. UCF - 16th nationally
2. Oklahoma State - 21
3. Utah - 22
4. Iowa State - 25
5. Kansas State - 32
6. Kansas - 35
7. BYU - 37
8. West Virginia - 43
9. TCU - 44
10. Cincinnati - 47
11. Texas Tech - 48
12. Arizona State - 50
13. Colorado - 52
14. Baylor - 56
15. Arizona - 62
16. Houston - 88

Conference Title Hopes?

Coming off a dominant win over Kansas State, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU a 7.0% chance to win the Big 12 and an 11.8% chance to make it to the College Football Playoff. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

1. UCF - 31.9%
2. Utah - 19.0%
3. Iowa State - 11.3%
4. Oklahoma State - 7.7%
5. BYU - 7.0%
6. West Virginia - 4.0%
7. Kansas State - 3.8%
8. Texas Tech - 3.5%
9. Cincinnati - 3.2%