ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Football vs Arizona, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Oct 6, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Chase Roberts (2) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

After a bye week, BYU is 5-0 and one of only two unbeaten teams in the Big 12. Arizona, BYU's next opponent, lost a late-night game to Texas Tech. Following Arizona's loss, FPI predicted BYU-Arizona and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 67.8% chance to beat Arizona on Saturday.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.0-3.0. The Cougars have a 99.6% chance to reach bowl eligibility according to FPI. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Arizona - 67.8% (Up from 33.8% in the preseason)
• Oklahoma State - 57.9% (Up from 30.2%)
• UCF - 40.0% (Up from 22.7%)
• Utah - 45.8% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 62.2% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 48.9% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 81.0% (Up from 62.6%)

Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" in a power conference as any season in which BYU wins 10 games or more in the regular season. FPI gives BYU a 36.3% chance to win 10 games or more.

5 wins or more - 100%
6 wins or more - 99.6%
7 wins or more - 97.9%
8 wins or more - 88.9%
9 wins or more - 66.9%
10 wins or more - 36.3%
11 wins or more - 12.0%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.8%

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped 4 spots in the FPI rankings to 38 after the bye week. Iowa State, who took down Baylor last night, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. The Cougars are ranked 5th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. Iowa State - 19th nationally
2. Kansas State - 21
3. Colorado - 30
4. West Virginia - 33
5. BYU - 38
6. UCF - 39
7. Utah - 40
8. Texas Tech - 42
9. Cincinnati - 48
10. Oklahoma State - 49
11. Kansas - 50
12. Arizona State - 53
13. Arizona - 56
14. TCU - 57
15. Baylor - 62
16. Houston - 80

Conference Title Hopes?

Coming off a 5-0 start, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU an 11.9% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 28.4%
2. Colorado - 13.8%
3. BYU - 11.9%
4. Kansas State - 11.4%
5. West Virginia - 11.3%
6. Texas Tech - 10.9%
7. UCF - 3.6%
8. Utah - 3.2%
9. Arizona - 1.8%
10. Cincinnati - 1.4%

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 21.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 37.9%
2. BYU - 21.8%
3. Kansas State - 16.2%
4. Colorado - 11.7%
5. Texas Tech - 8.6%
6. West Virginia - 5.9%
7. Utah - 3.5%
8. Arizona State - 2.1%
9. UCF - 2.0%
10. Arizona - 1.0%