ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Football vs Oklahoma State, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Oct 13, 2024

BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts against Arizona / BYU Photo

After a convincing win over Noah Fifita and the Arizona Wildcats, BYU is 6-0 and one of only two unbeaten teams in the Big 12. Oklahoma State, BYU's next opponent, is coming off a bye week. Following BYU's win over Arizona, FPI predicted BYU-Oklahoma State and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 63.0% chance to beat Oklahoma State on Friday night.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.7-2.3. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Oklahoma State - 63.0% (Up from 30.2% in the preseason)
• UCF - 48.0% (Up from 22.7%)
• Utah - 51.5% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 68.4% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 50.8% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 84.1% (Up from 62.6%)

Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" in a power conference as any season in which BYU wins 10 games or more in the regular season. Winning 10 games would be the minimum requirement to compete for a spot in the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. FPI gives BYU a 56.4% chance to win 10 games or more.

6 wins or more - 100%
7 wins or more - 99.8%
8 wins or more - 97.0%
9 wins or more - 84.3%
10 wins or more - 56.4%
11 wins or more - 23.8%
12 wins (undefeated) - 4.6%

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped 9 spots in the FPI rankings to 29 after the win over Arizona. Iowa State, who took down West Virginia last night, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. The Cougars are ranked 3rd out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. Iowa State - 17th nationally
2. Kansas State - 21
3. BYU - 29
4. Colorado - 31
5. WVU - 38
6. Cincinnati - 39
7. Utah - 44
8. Arizona State - 45
9. Texas Tech - 46
10. UCF - 47
11. Oklahoma State - 48
12. Kansas - 52
13. TCU - 56
14. Arizona - 58
15. Baylor - 60
16. Houston - 78

Conference Title Hopes?

Coming off a 6-0 start, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU an 18.9% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 41.1%
2. BYU - 18.8%
3. Kansas State - 14.9%
4. Texas Tech - 8.8%
5. Colorado - 5.4%
6. WVU - 3.3%
7. Cincinnati - 2.8%
8. ASU - 2.3%
9. Utah - 1.0%
10. UCF - 0.7%

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 32.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 53.2%
2. BYU - 32.7%
3. Kansas State - 24.1%
4. Texas Tech - 6.6%
5. ASU - 3.8%
6. Colorado - 3.7%
7. Cincinnati - 1.9%
8. WVU - 1.4%
9. Utah - 0.8%
10. UCF - 0.3%