ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Football vs UCF, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Oct 20, 2024

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion scores a touchdown against Oklahoma State / BYU Photo

After a dramatic win over Oklahoma State, BYU is 7-0 and one of only two unbeaten teams in the Big 12. UCF, BYU's next opponent, is coming off a dramatic loss to Iowa State, the other unbeaten team in the Big 12. Following BYU's win over Oklahoma State, FPI predicted BYU-UCF and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 45.5% chance to beat UCF on Saturday. UCF is BYU's most difficult game remaining according to FPI.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.1-1.9. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• UCF - 45.5% (Up from 22.7% in the preseason)
• Utah - 55.7% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 64.4% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 53.7% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 86.9% (Up from 62.6%)

Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" in a power conference as any season in which BYU wins 10 games or more in the regular season. Winning 10 games would be the minimum requirement to compete for a spot in the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. FPI gives BYU a 71.0% chance to win 10 games or more and a 7.6% chance to go undefeated.

7 wins or more - 100%
8 wins or more - 99.5%
9 wins or more - 93.4%
10 wins or more - 71.0%
11 wins or more - 34.7%
12 wins (undefeated) - 7.6%

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped one spot in the FPI rankings to 30 after the win over Oklahoma State. Kansas State, who took down West Virginia last night, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. Kansas State - 18th nationally
2. Iowa State - 19
3. Colorado - 24
4. BYU - 30
5. Cincinnati - 34
6. Kansas - 35
7. UCF - 36
8. Oklahoma State - 43
9. Arizona State - 49
10. TCU - 50
11. Utah - 52
12. West Virginia - 53
13. Baylor - 54
14. Texas Tech - 57
15. Arizona - 70
16. Houston - 87

Conference Title Hopes

Coming off a 7-0 start, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU an 23.7% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 35.3%
2. Kansas State - 25.5%
3. BYU - 23.7%
4. Colorado - 8.9%
5. Cincinnati - 2.7%
6. Texas Tech - 1.7%
7. TCU - 0.9%
8. ASU - 0.7%
9. WVU - 0.3%
10. Utah - 0.1%
11. Kansas - 0.1%

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 41.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 48.7%
2. BYU - 41.5%
3. Kansas State - 37.3%
4. Colorado - 6.9%
5. Cincinnati - 1.9%
6. Texas Tech - 0.9%
7. ASU - 0.6%
8. TCU - 0.3%
9. Utah - 0.1%