ESPN FPI Predicts BYU vs Kansas State, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Sep 15, 2024

Sep 14, 2024; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Darius Lassiter (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Wyoming Cowboys during the third quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Coming into the 2024 season, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was not high on BYU. FPI's projected record for BYU was 4.7-7.3 and FPI gave BYU just a 31% chance of getting to bowl eligibility. In the non-conference, FPI gave BYU just a 10.8% chance to go 3-0, but that's exactly what the Cougars did. On Saturday, BYU will open up Big 12 play against a top 15 team in Kansas State. FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Kansas State and updated the projection for the rest of BYU's 2024 season.

FPI gives BYU an 30.0% chance to beat Kansas State on Saturday night, up from 27.9% in the preseason.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

FPI's projected record for BYU increased to 6.6-5.4 after week three. The Cougars have a 75% chance to reach bowl eligibility according to FPI. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Kansas State - 30.0% (Up from 27.9% in the preseason)
• Baylor - 39.7% (Up from 34.0%)
• Arizona - 60.3% (Up from 33.8%)
• Oklahoma State - 31.9% (Up from 30.2%)
• UCF - 17.3% (Down from 22.7%)
• Utah - 26.3% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 49.3% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 38.8% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 69.5% (Up from 62.6%)

There were material changes in the predictions for three games after week three: Arizona, Houston, and Kansas.

Arizona struggled against Kansas State and BYU is now favored to beat Arizona after having a 33.8% chance to win in the preseason.

Kansas has struggled in the first three weeks, especially on offense under the direction of former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. That game is now a toss-up - the Jayhawks were heavily favored going into the season.

Houston bounced back in week three after an 0-2 start. BYU's chances to win that game decreased vs last week since Houston showed signs of life.

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped up two spots in the FPI rankings to 56 after beating Wyoming. The Cougars are ranked 12th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. Kansas State - 17th nationally
2. UCF - 18
3. Oklahoma State - 20
4. Utah - 24
5. TCU - 31
6. Kansas - 35
7. Arizona State - 41
8. Iowa State - 44
9. Baylor - 48
10. West Virginia - 51
11. Texas Tech - 53
12. Colorado - 54
13. BYU - 56
14. Arizona - 57
15. Cincinnati - 66
16. Houston - 84