ESPN FPI Updates BYU's Projected Win Total After Baylor Win

Casey Lundquist | Sep 29, 2024

BYU offense lines up against Baylor / BYU Photo

BYU is the only 5-0 team in the Big 12. Following the Cougars' 34-28 road win against Baylor, FPI updated BYU's projected win total. In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.1-2.9.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

FPI's projected record for BYU shot up all the way to 9.1-2.9 after week five. The Cougars have a 99.7% chance to reach bowl eligibility according to FPI. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Arizona - 66.5% (Up from 33.8%)
• Oklahoma State - 53.2% (Up from 30.2%)
• UCF - 39.0% (Up from 22.7%)
• Utah - 45.5% (Up from 24.0%)
• Kansas - 64.4% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 54.9% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 87.5% (Up from 62.6%)

Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" in a power conference as any season in which BYU wins 10 games or more in the regular season. FPI gives BYU a 38% chance to win 10 games or more.

10 wins - 25.4%
11 wins - 11.0%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.9%

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped up 3 spots in the FPI rankings to 34 after beating Baylor. Kansas State, who BYU beat at home a few weeks ago, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 despite losing to BYU. The Cougars are ranked 6th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

1. Kansas State - 20th nationally
2. Iowa State - 22
3. Colorado - 28
4. UCF - 31
5. Oklahoma State - 32
6. BYU - 34
7. Utah - 36
8. TCU - 37
9. Arizona - 44
10. Kansas - 48
11. West Virginia - 51
12. Texas Tech - 52
13. Cincinnati - 53
14. Arizona State - 54
15. Baylor - 58
16. Houston - 93

Conference Title Hopes?

Coming off a win over Baylor, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU a 15.1% chance to win the Big 12 and a 23.7% chance to make it to the College Football Playoff. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

1. Iowa State - 19.6%
2. Colorado - 15.2%
3. BYU - 15.1%
4. Kansas State - 13.6%
5. Arizona - 7.0%
6. UCF - 6.5%
7. TCU - 5.6%
8. Texas Tech - 5.1%
9. Utah - 4.9%
10. West Virginia - 3.1%