Five Dominoes That Could Initiate the Next Conference Realignment Moves
It's been nearly a year since USC and UCLA ditched the PAC-12 for a larger paycheck in the Big Ten. In the days since that landscape-altering move, rumors of Big 12 expansion, conference mergers, and other realignment rumors have consumed college football fans. Today, we look at five dominoes that could initiate the next conference realignment moves.
1. Pac-12 Media Deal Falls Flat
It's been nearly a year since the Pac-12 started negotiating its new media rights deal. It's also been over 100 days since the Pac-12 issued a statement saying it was "look[ing] forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future." Still, the Pac-12 has not found a new deal. Instead, the once respected conference has been the subject of a nearly year-long PR nightmare.
The delay of the Pac-12 media rights deal has been the driving force behind the constant realignment rumors. The longer the Pac-12 goes without a deal, the stronger the rumors get. On Tuesday, Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reported that "Colorado has been in 'substantive' talks with the Big 12 about possibly joining the growing league." That comes one week after the Oklahoman's Berry Tramel reported, "Colorado is ready to commit joining the Big 12 'soon.'"
The Big 12 hasn't been shy about its desire to add some combination of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah from the Pac-12. Those schools have expressed their intentions to remain in the Pac-12 if the money makes sense, but so far the money hasn't made enough sense to reach a deal. Colorado athletic director Rick George gave an interview last week where he publicly stated that Colorado would look out for its own best interests.
“In a perfect world, we’d love to be in the Pac-12, but we also have to do what’s right for Colorado at the end of the day,” George said. “We’ll evaluate things as we move forward.”
Until the Pac-12 signs a new media deal, its remaining schools are candidates to jump to the Big 12. If the proposed Pac-12 falls flat, multiple Pac-12 schools could jump to the Big 12. Arizona and Colorado are the two schools that have been linked to the Big 12 the most.
2. Pac-12 Paranoia
Another major hurdle facing the Pac-12: even if a tv deal is negotiated, can the conference survive beyond the next media deal? It's no secret that Oregon and Washington have flirted with the Big Ten and they hope to be members of the Big Ten in the future. Maybe the Big Ten invite will never come and Oregon and Washington will stay in the Pac-12. If an invite does come, however, it would leave the remaining eight schools in a very vulnerable position.
Put yourself in the position of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, or Colorado. Would you agree to that deal when you are receiving interest from the Big 12? Especially considering the money might be less to stay in the Pac-12. Sure, staying with two coveted brands has its merits. But mortgaging your future with Oregon and Washington could come with catastrophic long-term consequences. Especially if the Ducks and Huskies are hesitant to sign a long grant-of-rights. The Big 12 is interested in those four schools today, but that doesn't mean they will be interested in those schools in five to 10 years from now. A more secure future in the Big 12 looks more and more enticing with each passing month without a Pac-12 tv deal in place. If one of the four-corner schools gets paranoid, they might opt for the more secure future in the Big 12. If the national reports are any indication, Colorado is the closest to leaving before a Pac-12 tv deal is signed.
3. Pac-12 Gets Back to 12
The third domino that could initiate the next wave of conference realignment is Pac-12 expansion. If the Pac-12 finds a sufficient media deal, it could go out and add Group of Five schools. The Pac-12 has been linked to San Diego State and SMU.
This domino wouldn't shake the Power Five landscape, but it would cause ripple effects at the Group of Five level.
4. The Big 12 Reaches to Expand at Group of Five Level
Brett Yormark has been aggressive in his expansion pursuits. He's made it very clear that growing the conference is one of his primary goals as the Big 12 commissioner. What happens if the Big 12's top targets (Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah) stay in the Pac-12? One potential scenario, albeit unlikely, is the Big 12 could grow impatient and add Group of Five schools. In a recent article, Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger reported that the Big 12 has evaluated a variety of Group of Five schools: "San Diego State and UNLV from the Mountain West; UConn, which is independent in football and in the Big East in basketball; and Memphis, from the American. There are others, too, such as Colorado State, SMU and Fresno, but they seem further down the pecking order."
Would Yormark have the support of the university presidents to make such a move? It feels unlikely. In fact, that feels like the kind of proposition that could cause a divide between the big 12 member institutions.
5. The ACC Crumbles
The last and least likely domino (at least in the near term) rides on the future of the ACC. The cracks in the ACC are starting to show, even with a signed grant-of-rights that extends beyond this decade. In the same article from Ross Dellenger, he reported that seven schools are taking a closer look at the grant-of-rights:
"A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the past several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is."
If ACC schools can find a way out of the grant-of-rights, the ACC could be poached by the Big Ten, the SEC, and even the Big 12. If some ACC schools leave for the SEC or Big Ten, the Big 12 (or Pac-12) could add some of the remaining ACC schools. The ACC grant-of-rights has been examined by dozens of lawyers, and none of them have found an exit. Until that happens, the ACC domino is the least likely to fall.
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