Five Games that will Impact BYU's AP Ranking in Week One
After a long offseason full of conference expansion rumors, talks surrounding NIL, the transfer portal, and TV deals, the college football season is finally here. Heading into the season opener against USF, BYU is ranked no. 25 in the preseason AP poll. The game at USF will present a challenge for BYU - USF returns a lot of production and it added 15 FBS transfers this offseason. National voters, however, expect BYU to win since USF is coming off a 2-10 2021 season. Therefore, BYU will need some help to move up in the polls by week two. Here are five games that will impact BYU's ranking in the AP poll if the Cougars beat USF.
1. #23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas
September 3 | ESPN | 1:30 PM MT
No. 19 Arkansas will host no. 23 Cincinnati in one of the best matchups of the opening weekend. FPI gives Arkansas a 60% chance to win. The loser of this game will be vulnerable to slide below BYU in the polls.
Of note, the Razorbacks travel to Provo to take on BYU in October.
2. West Virginia @ #17 Pitt
September 1 | ESPN | 5:00 PM MT
Pitt and West Virginia renew a longstanding rivalry named the Backyard Brawl. This will be first Backyard Brawl since 2011. Not only can BYU fans cheer for a future Big 12 peer in WVU, they can also cheer for a boost in the AP poll. FPI gives Pitt a 78% chance to win.
3. #13 NC State @ East Carolina
September 3 | ESPN | 10:00 AM MT
A lot of movement happens in the AP poll between week one and week two. For example, NC State's in-state rival North Carolina was ranked no. 10 in the preseason polls last season. After suffering a loss at Virginia Tech in the season opener, the Tar Heels dropped clear down to no. 24 in the following AP poll. Therefore, any team ranked outside the top 10 is vulnerable to slide below BYU in the polls with a loss. Enter NC State.
NC State travels to East Carolina for an in-state battle to start the 2022 season. NC State is favored by two scores, but SP+ gives East Carolina a 22% chance to pull off the upset. East Carolina was much improved last season going 7-5 with narrow road losses to South Carolina (20-17), UCF (20-16), and Houston (31-24 OT).
4. #24 Houston @ UTSA
September 3 | CBSSN | 1:30 PM MT
Future Big 12 peer Houston faces a tough road challenge to start the 2022 season. SP+ gives the red Cougars a 55% chance to beat a UTSA program that has been on the rise over the last two seasons.
Outside those aforementioned games, teams ranked 12-22 won't face much of a challenge in week one, at least on paper. No. 21 Ole Miss, for example, hosts Troy. No. 14 USC hosts Rice, no. 20 Kentucky hosts Miami (Ohio), no. 18 Wisconsin hosts Illinois State, and no. 16 Miami hosts Bethune-Cookman. Crazier things have happened, but SP+ puts the probability at 78% that all of five of those ranked teams win in week one.
5. Penn State @ Purdue
September 1 | FOX | 6:00 PM MT
After week one last season, four teams jumped into the top 25. Of those four teams, UCLA made the most significant jump going from unranked to no. 16 following a win over LSU.
Every year, teams that win big games in week one leapfrog teams into the top 25. Penn State is a candidate to leapfrog BYU in the polls after week one. Penn State received votes and narrowly missed out on making the top 25, and the Nittany Lions have a chance to impress AP voters with a road game at Purdue on national television.
Brands like Penn State (and Texas and LSU for that matter) are given the benefit of the doubt by a lot of voters early in the season. If Penn State looks good against Purdue, expect the Nittany Lions to jump into the top 25 and potentially leapfrog BYU.
BONUS: Florida State vs LSU
September 4 | ABC | 5:30 PM MT
The same Penn State-Purdue logic applies to Florida State-LSU. Florida State takes on LSU in a made-for-tv matchup on Sunday night. This game will get a lot of attention and LSU was already receiving a lot of votes in the AP poll. Like Penn State, expect LSU to jump into the top 25 with a win.
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