Five Reasons BYU Can Beat Arkansas on Saturday

The national pundits have made it clear that no one expects BYU can walk out of Fayetteville with a win Saturday. Here's how I think BYU can get it done.

BYU faces its first real test of the 2023 season as they roll into Fayetteville to face the 2-0 Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs have had a strong start to the season with victories over Western Carolina and Kent State and find themselves just outside the AP poll as they welcome BYU to town. Virtually no one expects BYU to walk out of Razorback Stadium with a win on Saturday, but here are five reasons why BYU pull off the upset.

1. Arkansas will be without star RB Rocket Sanders

Arkansas has already struggled running the football this season, but that will get harder without perhaps their best player on offense. Rocket Sanders suffered a knee injury in their season opener and is being held out in hopes that he will be ready to go when Arkansas opens up SEC play at LSU next week. Sanders was instrumental in Arkansas’s 52 point outburst in Provo last year, running for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 15 carries. Backup AJ Green has been more than serviceable this season, running for 104 yards and 19 carries so far this season, but Arkansas faces a much tougher task trying to run on BYU’s much improved rush defense.

2. BYU's run defense is playing at an elite level

Arkansas has had problems running the football so far this season. The Razorbacks average just 3.4 yards per carry and have mustered 4 runs of 10+ yards against Western Carolina and Kent State on 75 total carries. It’s worth noting as well that neither opponent has a particularly game-breaking defense. For reference, fellow Big 12 member UCF had 12 runs of 10+ yards against Kent State alone on just 39 carries.

BYU’s run defense has been stellar so far this season, allowing only 61 rushing yards per game, good enough for 10th nationally. Forcing Arkansas to play one dimensional football does not guarantee a BYU win Saturday, but it’s a great first step.

Credit: BYU Photo

3. Arkansas is still figuring out their offensive line

Arkansas offensive line play has been an issue for Arkansas while rotating bodies heavily at both left tackle and right guard. The Razorback front has allowed QB pressures on 25% on QB drop backs this season to go along with the struggles in the run game discussed earlier. While BYU has only accounted for one sack so far this season, they have been much better at getting pressure on the QB than they did a year ago, recording 13 QB hits through week 2 compared to just 31 all of last season. BYU’s improved pass rush along with BYU’s opportunistic secondary bodes well for BYU putting up a better fight against star QB KJ Jefferson than they did a year ago in Provo.

4. LJ Martin is RB1

BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick announced earlier this week that LJ Martin will get the nod this week over incumbent starters Aidan Robbins and Deion Smith. It's no secret that BYU has not been good in the run game, but the run game has been noticeably different when LJ Martin is holding the football. Martin is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 3.28 yards after contact, good enough for top 40 nationally. If LJ can maintain that over a full game Saturday, BYU's offense will look completely different than it has over the first 2 weeks of the season and may be enough to push BYU over the top. 

Credit: BYU Photo

5. Kedon Slovis and the BYU passing game

Arkansas secondary ranked 129th in the country in pass defense a year ago. While they appear much improved so far this season with four-star transfers Al Walcott and Jaheim Singletary, yards can still be had through the air against them. Arkansas’ secondary allows 7.0 yards per attempt this season including 10.2 yards per attempt to Kent State QB Michael Alaimo. BYU QB Kedon Slovis was terrific last week for BYU, throwing for 348 yards and 4 TDs in roughly 3 quarters of play against an overmatched SUU team. BYU may also be getting back perhaps their best receiver in Kody Epps who torched Arkansas for 125 yards and a touchdown last season. If Slovis can stay upright and BYU’s receivers continue to find separation, we could hear air raid sirens ring through the Fayetteville night.

Prediction

On paper, Arkansas is a slightly better version of BYU. Both teams have blown out an FCS opponent and were played surprisingly tough by a G5 opponent early on. Both teams have been carried by their front seven and have strong, but susceptible secondaries. Both teams have seen solid QB play, but neither offensive line has lived up to expectation as they try to find any answer on the ground.

This game will be low scoring. I don’t have enough faith in either offense to create a ton of explosive plays and Arkansas wants to slow things down on offense. BYU’s chances hinge on their offensive line play. If BYU can return to their 2021-2022 form, I think BYU will shock some people in the heart of SEC country. Unfortunately, I think they are overmatched against a defensive front which has recorded 10 sacks, 7 QB hits, and 1.3 yards per carry allowed so far this season. Kedon Slovis has a solid night of 225+ yards passing and 2 TD’s, but BYU still struggles to find their identity on the ground. BYU’s defense proves they are leaps and bounds ahead of where they were last season, but in the end, KJ Jefferson’s ability to extend plays against pressure proves to be too much for BYU to overcome.

BYU 20 – 28 Arkansas