Five Reasons BYU can Upset No. 13 Kansas State

Joe Wheat | 1 Hour Ago

BYU cornerback Marque Collins against SMU / BYU Photo

BYU welcomes no. 13 Kansas State to town in what is sure to be a truly special college football environment. Vegas currently has BYU as a 6.5-point underdog, but national pundits such as Josh Pate and Scott Van Pelt consider BYU to be a trendy upset pick. Naturally, we agree. Here are five reasons we think BYU is capable of pulling off the upset against a Big 12 title contender.

1. BYU should be able to put pressure on Avery Johnson

For as good as Kansas State's offensive lines have been over the last five years, this year's version appears to have taken a step back. Kansas State has yet to post a pass block grade above 62 against an FBS opponent according to PFF, and have allowed pressures on 37% of drop backs over the last two weeks. BYU’s front seven has been ruthless through 3 weeks, generating 53 pressures on 93 pass attempts faced. Putting the heat on a RS Freshman quarterback and getting Kansas State behind the sticks will be crucial to keeping Kansas State's run game in check, and BYU has demonstrated the ability to do just that.

2. Kansas States offense is largely one dimensional

BYU cornerback Marque Collins against SMU / BYU Photo

Kansas State is averaging 225 yards per game on the ground behind their three-headed monster of DJ Giddens, Dylan Edwards, and Avery Johnson, but that’s about it for their offense. Avery Johnson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this season while Kansas State managed just 390 yards and 24 points against an Arizona defense that allowed nearly 500 yards and 37 points to New Mexico two weeks earlier. Stopping Kansas State’s ground game is no small task, but BYU has only allowed 1 running back to gain over 35 yards in a game this season. Meanwhile, BYU’s secondary ranks 4th nationally in pass efficiency allowed. If BYU’s run defense comes to play, Kansas State is going to have a tough time moving the ball on Jay Hill’s squad.

3. Jake Retzlaff is the kind of quarterback that has given Kansas State problems this year

Kansas State’s run defense is as tough as they come, but they are vulnerable in the secondary. Kansas State is ranked 114th in pass defense this season and allowed 610 passing yards over the last two weeks. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 342 of those yards on a whopping 11.8 yards per attempt. Stylistically, Mensah is a very similar quarterback to BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff: High volume and high volatility. If Retzlaff can replicate his performance from the last three quarters against Wyoming, BYU will be able to keep pace with the Kansas State offense.

4. BYU’s offensive line proved capable of protecting the QB against an elite defensive line

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against Wyoming / BYU Photo

Say what you will about SMU this season, their defensive line is elite. SMU returned three defensive linemen that combined for 19 sacks last season and were held to just 3 total pressures by BYU’s offensive line. Kansas State's front will be a tough test. The Wildcats have already generated 13 sacks and 20 QB hits in 3 weeks, more than BYU's defense had all of last season. The good news is BYU passed their first test this season, and if Retzlaff is able to play from a clean pocket, there will be opportunities to pick Kansas State's secondary apart through the air.

5. This is a night game at Lavell Edwards Stadium in September

There is something special about Lavell Edwards Stadium at night, especially in the month of September. BYU is 14-2 in the month of September over the last four seasons and has won four straight September home games against ranked opponents dating back to 2019. An 8:30 kick, whiteout conditions, against a redshirt freshman quarterback in the most hostile environment he will have faced in his career? That has all the makings of a special night in Provo.

Prediction

I expect this game to be an old fashioned rock fight. BYU’s defense is legit but it’s tough to trust BYU’s offense with no run game against an elite Kansas State front seven. BYU has the best trio of linebackers Kansas State will have played this season. Harrison Taggart, Isaiah Glasker, and Jack Kelly all have elite speed that can keep Avery Johnson contained with the physicality to meet DJ Giddens at the line of scrimmage.

I think BYU can move the ball through the air against Kansas State, but Jake Retzlaff hasn’t proved he can avoid the costly mistake against P4 teams yet. Couple that with BYU being down their top 3 running backs and I have a tough time believing BYU is going to win a shootout.

Hammer the under in this one. BYU’s defense and the ROC hold Kansas State's offense to under 350 yards and 20 points while BYU connects on just enough big pass plays to pull off the upset.

BYU 21 – 17 Kansas State