Five Reasons No. 9 BYU Can Break the Curse at Utah

Joe Wheat | Nov 8, 2024

BYU celebrates win over UCF / BYU Photo

If the Holy War doesn’t make you anxious as a BYU fan, you didn’t live through the last 15 years. No. 9 BYU comes into their matchup with 4-4 Utah as the better team on paper, but rivalry games aren’t played on paper and BYU is still shaking off the ghosts of nearly 20 years of futility in Rice-Eccles Stadium. Still, if there were ever a year to snap a five-game losing streak in Salt Lake, this would be it. Here are five reasons why I think BYU’s magical season continues with a win over the Utes.

1. BYU’s defense is built to stop a struggling Utah offense

BYU linebacker Jack Kelly against SMU / BYU Photo

Utah’s offense is really struggling to move the football. So much so, that BYU led more 75-yard touchdown drives in the first half against UCF than Utah did in the entire month of October. In their last four games, Utah has committed more turnovers (8) than touchdowns scored (5), with 2 of those touchdowns coming from drives of more than 3 plays. Therefore, the key to stopping Utah’s offense appears to be not giving up the big play and let them make mistakes. This is exactly what BYU’s defense is built to do.

BYU's defense is 58th in the country in down-to-down success rate, but 16th in expected points added per play (EPA). In layman’s terms, BYU is ok giving up small chunks in favor of forcing the back -breaking mistake down the line. That strategy has proven effective as BYU ranks third nationally in takeaways per game. If BYU can get up on Utah early and force Utah to throw, there will be opportunities for those passes to be thrown to the team in blue.

2. BYU’s offensive strength in Utah’s defensive weakness

BYU RB LJ Martin / BYU Photo

By most efficiency metrics, Utah has a top- 15 defense, which is a great way to keep games close with a struggling offense. However, Utah’s defense, in many ways, is the inverse of BYU’s, ranking 11th in down-to-down success rate but 40th in EPA. In other words, they are as stingy as it gets on the average play, but they are susceptible to giving up big plays without forcing many of their own. Perhaps most alarmingly for Utah, their run defense is 68th in EPA per rush while BYU’s offense ranks 13th in EPA per rush. If BYU’s run game can continue what they’ve done since LJ Martin’s return, BYU can control this game on the ground.

3. If BYU’s run game opens up, so will Jake Retzlaff

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against Arizona / BYU Photo

According to PFF, Retzlaff is the 5th best quarterback nationally on play action with a 90.4 offensive grade. At that point, BYU’s passing success becomes reliant on how well BYU’s receivers can get open against against man coverage. BYU’s offense fared well against Arizona, who also employs a healthy dose of man coverage, though this Utah secondary is a different animal. Still, if the run game gets going, there will be plenty of one-on-one matchups for a guy like Chase Roberts, who is top 25 nationally in contested catch percentage.

4. BYU should win the turnover battle

BYU CB Jakob Robinson intercepts Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita / BYU Photo

Even if Utah can limit BYU’s downfield passing game, BYU’s path to victory still resides in protecting the football. There continues to be a narrative that Jake Retzlaff is reckless with the football despite recording just four turnover-worthy throws in his last five games. This simply isn't the same quarterback that struggled against SMU early in the season. And while Utah’s defense is notorious for turning over BYU quarterbacks, Utah hasn’t been that kind of secondary this year. Utah's secondary has forced three total picks in their last four games while Utah's defense is 71st in takeaways nationally.

If anyone has a tendency to be reckless with the football this year, it’s been Utah, whose quarterbacks have registered 11 turnover-worthy throws in the last 4 games. Turnovers are often hard to predict, but if we have to try, I am putting my money on a BYU defense who is second nationally in interceptions against whatever quarterback Utah elects to play.

5. Utah’s passing offense… woof.

BYU cornerback Marque Collins against SMU / BYU Photo

We are nine games into the season and Utah doesn’t know who their quarterback is. Utah spent the bye week holding a midseason quarterback battle between Isaac Wilson and Brandon Rose, which is usually not a great sign that things are going well at the position. Of the 26 Big 12 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 15 passes, Wilson and Rose rank 23rd and 26th in passer rating. Improving on that production gets harder now that Utah’s best deep-threat receiver, Money Parks, is out for the year while their offensive line ranks 87th nationally in sacks allowed per game. Meanwhile BYU ranks 4th nationally in pass efficiency defense. Additionally, five of the top 20 Big 12 leaders in QB hits reside with BYU. If those QB hits turn into sacks Saturday, Utah’s night will be as long as their third down yardage.

Prediction

BYU defensive end Isaiah Bagnah pressures Noah Fifita / BYU Photo

Most BYU fans are likely still suffering from the lingering effects of a nine-game losing streak to the team up north, and rightfully so. Utah is an exceptional program and has been for nearly 25 years. Even after a four-game losing streak, Utah is still power rated as a top 40 team according to SP+ on the back of a championship-level defense that can absolutely cause problems for BYU. The problem for Utah is that they haven't proven they can score more than 17 points without help from BYU. Over the last month, Utah ranks 131st nationally in points per game (13.3), fired their offensive coordinator, and benched their starting quarterback. They now face a BYU defense which is top 10 in the country in forcing turnovers, top 25 in points per game allowed and among the best in the conference at generating pressure.

In my view, this game comes down to whether BYU’s offense can generate more than 20 points and commit fewer than 2 turnovers, and I believe they can. Since LJ Martin’s return, BYU ranks 13th in points per game and 11th nationally in yards per rush while Utah’s defense ranks 80th in yards per rush allowed over that same span. Utah’s defense is good enough to hold BYU to well under their season average in points scored, but not quite good enough to overcome a Utah offense that is all out of answers.

BYU 24 – 13 Utah