Five Takeaways From BYU Football's "Upset" Over UCF

Joe Wheat | Oct 28, 2024

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff against UCF / BYU Photo

The Cougs keep rolling in big big way following a 37-24 “upset” road win over UCF to improve to 8-0 and a top 10 ranking. One could argue that BYU, who was a three point underdog, has done more to destabilize Las Vegas and gambling culture this season than any general conference talk in the last 25 years. When a team is undefeated this late in the season, it’s hard to write a takeaway article without sounding repetitive, but we will try anyway. Here are five things I took away from yet another BYU win.

Weird day for the defense

BYU safety Faletau Satuala intercepts a pass against UCF / BYU Photo

I don’t know what to make of the defensive performance. I think it was good, but I’m not sure. BYU held the nation's fourth best rush offense to 70 yards under their season average, which is great. BYU still allowed 6.2 yards per carry, which is not great. UCF gained 39% of the available yards in the first 3 quarters, which is great, but allowed 100% on two 4th quarter drives, which is not great. Really, it was a microcosm of the last 3 weeks. BYU ranks 85th in yards-per-play defense while also dropping from 8th to 24th nationally over that time. BYU still ranks 4th nationally in pass efficiency defense, but their run defense has taken a major step back from where they were the first half of the season.

Still, I think the defense took a step forward against a very potent UCF offense. They allowed just 44 total yards and 0 points on UCF’s first four drives in the second half and were 2/10 on third down. Still, there just wasn’t the same level of sustained dominance that had BYU looking like a juggernaut through six weeks.

Arod has this offense rolling

BYU running back LJ Martin against UCF / BYU Photo

One could argue that BYU’s best defense in this game was their offense. BYU’s sustained ground attack led three drives of 6+ minutes that ended in points and kept RJ Harvey and company on the sidelines. BYU’s offense has been on a heater lately. BYU ranks 14th nationally in yards per play over the last 3 games and 12th in points per game. From the second half of Oklahoma State to the end of the 3rd quarter against UCF, BYU scored points on 10 out of 11 drives for a staggering 5.3 points per drive. Even when they aren’t scoring, they are sustaining drives with just three three-and-outs over the last three weeks. BYU has gained 68% of available yards over that span, which would rank 4th nationally if sustained over a full season. Jake Retzlaff has been excellent, but he has been all season, so what changed? The run game. Since LJ Martin's return against Arizona, BYU is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, up from 4.2 yards per carry over the first 5 games. If BYU’s offense can sustain this level of production, there may not be an offense left on the schedule that will be able to keep up.

I’m not worried about BYU closing out games

BYU tight end Mata'ava Ta'ase scores a touchdown against UCF / BYU Photo

The second half of that game felt like quintessential BYU with a lead: Go up three scores (and not a point more), proceed to throw three passes the rest of the game, finish with 38 points (and not a point more), and give up a garbage-time touchdown or two to turn a blowout into something much less satisfactory. That’s always bothered me in the past, but going conservative in the second half doesn’t matter in the Big 12 when BYU controls their own destiny and all that matters is winning. UCF has been down three scores in the second half and won before, just ask TCU. If BYU is running for 6 yards per carry and UCF wants to run off 12-play drives down 20 late in the 4th quarter, they can knock themselves out. What’s important is winning the game, and we know BYU is good at that, even if it makes us feel a little gross in the process.

Vegas just isn’t going to respect BYU this season and that’s ok

BYU tight end Ray Paulo / BYU Photo

As a data nerd, I love advanced analytics. My articles are filled with three letter acronyms like EPA and YPP to help tell the story of BYU’s season. But in the end, not all of them have nice things to say about BYU. Predictive metrics like ESPN’s FPI, Bill Connelly’s SP+, and Josh Pate’s “JP Poll” all have BYU outside their top 25. Similar predictive metrics are what led to 8-0 BYU being a 3-point underdog in a game they’d eventually lead by 24 points late in the second half. Unfortunately, these metrics will educate the national discourse about BYU. Bud Elliott of CBS’s Cover3 podcast defended leaving BYU of his projected CFP by saying “BYU is currently favored by just 2 over a 3-4 UCF team with a backup QB… BYU has been incredibly turnover lucky against a weak schedule. This is what the professionals are seeing.”

Well, the professionals were wrong about BYU. Again. BYU has the nation's second best record against the spread (7-1) with an average margin against the spread of 14 points per game, also second best nationally. Undervalue BYU at your own financial peril. Trying to whittle down your college football analysis to what is a “predictable” is a really easy way to be wrong a lot about a sport where “unpredictability” is the first line on the brochure. Case in point, Mr. Elliott went 2-10 in his picks last week against the spread.

This late in the season, we have enough data to know that there is something about BYU that the predictive analytics just can’t quantify, and that’s ok. It’s better to judge what they’ve actually done rather than what they hypothetically will be able to do in the future anyway. The resume-based metrics love BYU. They are 3rd in ESPN’s strength of record, 9th in resume SP+, and 4th in KFord. They are one of 5 teams with 2 wins over teams ranked in the AP top 25 and have held a 20+ point lead in all but 2 of their games. The data is clear. BYU is a top 10 team that doesn’t care what point spreads predict about them in a hypothetical world that isn’t this one.

It's time to extend Kalani and staff

BYU celebrates a win over Arizona / BYU Photo

Jay Hill has gotten a lot of credit for BYU’s miraculous turnaround, and rightfully so. He is a P4 head coach caliber in every sense. But giving him all the credit is a massive disservice to the rest of the coaching staff. TJ woods has this offensive line generating over 3 yards before contact the last few weeks. Kelly Poppinga has punters snapping the ball between their legs on fake field goal attempts. Aaron Roderick took the offense from 100th in scoring to 22nd with the same roster. This has been a team effort, which leads me to Kalani.

BYU needs to do whatever they can to lock up Kalani long term. You can say all you want about him only being as good as his coordinators, but if BYU wins one more game this season, it will be the 4th unique set of coordinators to win 9 games under Kalani. Since 2020, BYU is 11th nationally in win percentage, ahead of schools like Penn State, Washington, Texas, and *cough cough* Utah. He's had 13 players drafted since 2017, more than any coach since Lavell, and is the only coach in BYU history with a winning record against P4 opponents. One could also argue that he is one of the best big-game coaches in BYU history, with the highest win percentage against ranked opponents (40%), including a 7-7 record since 2019, which ranks 12th nationally over that span (20th in total wins). Couple that with an 8-0 start, a top 10 ranking, and a chance to play for a conference title in November of year 2 of the Big12. The time has come to #ExtendKalani.