Five Takeaways from BYU's Ranking in the CFP Top 25

Casey Lundquist | Nov 5, 2024

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff against UCF / BYU Photo

On Tuesday night, BYU was ranked no. 9 in the first CFP Top 25 rankings. BYU's ranking was described by one ESPN analyst as "painfully low". Here are our takeaways from the first CFP rankings of the 2024 season.

1. BYU is ranked too low

When the rankings were being unveiled and SMU came in at no. 13, I thought that would bode well for BYU's ranking. Surely, if the committee thought so highly of SMU as to rank them in the top 13, and on the cusp of a CFP birth, the team that handed them their only loss of the season should be highly regarded...right? Especially since that team beat the Mustangs in a true road game?

And surely, if that same team has another 29-point win over a Kansas State team that was ranked inside the top 20, that team would have one of the best resumes in the country. On top of that, that team hasn't slipped up like most other teams in the country. That's a better resume than Indiana, Miami, Penn State, Texas, and Tennessee.

Instead, BYU was ranked behind Indiana - a team with no wins over any team with a winning record.

BYU was ranked behind Miami - a team that has one win over a Top 25 team, and has needed three game-deciding plays to be overturned by replay to pull out narrow wins.

BYU was ranked behind big brands Texas, Tennessee, and Penn State who have fewer wins over Top 25 teams than BYU combined: one. This side-by-side comparison of BYU's resume compared to Penn State's is the perfect example. If the logos and brand names were removed and these two resumes were stacked against each other, there would be no excuse to rank BYU's resume below Penn State's.

🤔 pic.twitter.com/c8H0nyTrIS

— Sam Khan Jr. (@skhanjr) November 6, 2024

BYU deserved to be ranked higher based on their resume. Results have to matter or else the value of the college football regular season will go down. The remarks from the CFP director didn't provide any answers, either. The CFP committee should be required to be more transparent with their rankings.

2. The chances for an at-large birth are slim - with one exception

If BYU drops a game in the regular season, it's hard to imagine there will be a path to an at-large birth. The only way BYU can earn an at-large birth, based on the committee's philosophy this season, appears to be if BYU goes undefeated in the regular season before losing in the Big 12 championship. An 11-2 BYU team with a loss in the Big 12 championship probably won't get in.

BYU has some wiggle room to get into the Big 12 championship, but there is not much wiggle room to getting into the CFP.

There might be one exception to that - and it hinges on the performance of SMU from here on out.

3. BYU fans need to cheer for SMU

BYU's best win right now is over no. 13 SMU. That ranking is very significant, because as it currently stands, the Mustangs are one spot away from being in the CFP.

If BYU loses a game in November, SMU's ranking will probably dictate where BYU will be ranked after a loss. Since the Cougars have a head-to-head win over SMU, BYU would probably be ranked just ahead of SMU if they continue to win.

That's good news for BYU - that would put the Cougars right around the top 12 even with one loss.

That is BYU's only path to an at-large birth with an 11-2 record including a loss in the Big 12 title game: if SMU wins out and wins the ACC. If the Mustangs win out, BYU would have one of the top five wins of the 2024 college football season. That might be enough to sneak in with two losses.

4. The ranking criteria for the committee is not consistent

When the CFP committee director was asked why Indiana was ranked ahead of BYU, he cited the scoring margin in Indiana's games. Then when he was asked about Miami being ranked ahead of BYU, he said, "It came down to more of an eye test."

So which is it? Because if scoring margin is being considered, Miami has needed three miracles to win three games this season. Is that passing the eye test?

The CFP rankings should come with more transparency from the committee.

5. Boise State is dangerously close

The four highest-ranked conference champions get the top four seeds in the CFP and the fifth highest-rated conference champion gets an automatic bid to the first round. It's most likely that the four Power Four champions will get those byes, but it is not guaranteed.

Boise State is ranked dangerously close to BYU at no. 12 in the CFP. If BYU drops a game and then goes on to win the Big 12, there is no guarantee that BYU would earn a top-four seed.

If a team like Iowa State or Kansas State wins the Big 12, it's even less likely that they will earn a top-four seed.