Four Keys to a BYU Upset Over Kansas

What must BYU do to pull off the upset in the Big 12 opener?

BYU heads to Lawrence, Kansas to take on the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon. As of this writing, BYU is a 9.5-point underdog against Kansas. Here are four keys to a BYU upset over Kansas.

1. String defensive stops together

Credit: BYU photo

In all three games this season, BYU's defense has been able to string together multiple stops at the same time. Against Sam Houston State, BYU got 14 consecutive stops in a shutout. Against Southern Utah, BYU got six consecutive stops and scored 27 unanswered points during that time.

Against Arkansas, BYU got five consecutive stops that enabled a 21-0 run and gave BYU a 21-14 lead after going down 14-0 in the first minutes of the game. In the second half, BYU got six consecutive stops to finish the game and the BYU offense scored 17 unanswered to win the game.

The Jayhawks are too talented on offense to be completely contained - they are going to get theirs. The key for the BYU defense will be to do what they've done all season: string together consecutive stops that allows the offense to go on a run. If the defense can keep Kansas to 30 points or less, the BYU offense is more than capable of scoring 30+ and winning the game.

2 Get off the field on third down

A key to stringing together defensive stops will be getting off the field on third down. Kansas is one of the best teams in the country on third down. The Jayhawks have converted 62.9% of third downs - that ranks third in the country. The Jayhawks have been effective on third down over the last few years. In 2022, Kansas ranked eighth in the country on third down after converting over 50% of third downs.

Third down defense has been a strength for the BYU defense this season. The Cougars rank 15th nationally and are allowing only 27.9% conversion on third downs. BYU's third down defense against Arkansas was excellent, allowing only 2/13 conversions on third down.

Something's got to give on third down - either Kansas will continue their dominance on third down or BYU will continue to get off the field like they have all season. Whoever wins this battle will likely win the game.

3. Find chunk yards on offense

Generally speaking, BYU has struggled to create chunk plays in 2023. BYU ranks 105th in plays of 10+ yards and 93rd in plays of 20+ yards. A large portion of BYU's scoring plays, however, have been chunk plays. The average yards gained on BYU's touchdowns is 17.9 yards. BYU has scoring plays of 20 (x2), 37, 39, 42, and 45 this season. The limited sample size from this season suggests that BYU needs to create chunk plays to consistently score. 

Kansas' defense is aggressive and they will take a lot of chances to make impact plays. This also leaves them vulnerable to chunk-yardage plays. BYU has to take advantage and use their aggressiveness against them.

Luckily for BYU fans, that is one of Aaron Roderick's strengths. Between trick plays, screen passes, deep play action passes over the top, defenses have to think twice before aggressively pursuing. Against Arkansas, BYU had a trick-play touchdown that was successful because of the Razorbacks' aggressiveness. On the screen pass touchdown to Parker Kingston, BYU used play action and misdirection to divert the eyes of the Arkansas defense away from the play. Kingston had a clear path to the endzone with an extra blocker to spare.

BYU's offensive philosophy is set up to make undisciplined defenses pay. BYU needs to use that system to create chunk plays on Saturday.

4. More success on first and second down

BYU's effectiveness on first and second down has been, in a word, abysmal. On average, BYU's distance to go on third down is 8.33 yards. That's not sustainable and it's the primary reason why BYU has punted so many times. BYU has 42 drives on offense this season. Of those 42 drives, 20 of them have resulted in less than 10 yards. That's too many three-and-outs.

Of the 22 drives that resulted in at least one first down, 14 of them have been scoring drives (13 touchdowns). So what's the takeaway? BYU's offense has been feast or famine. Either BYU is driving and scoring or punting soon after they get the ball.

The key to sustaining more drives will be the running game. Outside of LJ Martin's 45-yard rush against Arkansas, BYU is averaging 2.25 yards per carry on first down. That must change against Kansas. If BYU defense is going to keep Kansas' high-powered offense in check, it needs the offense to stay on the field and sustain more drives.

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