FPI Predicts BYU-Baylor, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

FPI updated its win projection for BYU in 2022

Following a dominant victory over USF, ESPN FPI updated its win projection for BYU in 2022. Originally, FPI expected to go 7-5. After Saturday, BYU is expected to go 8.5-3.5 in 2022. Below is FPI's BYU-Baylor prediction, along with the updated win probabilities for each of BYU's remaining games.

September 10th - vs Baylor Bears

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 42.4%

Original win probability: 42.8%

Since Baylor was just as dominant as BYU in week one, FPI's win probability essentially stayed flat after week one. FPI is expecting a competitive game between BYU and Baylor.

Last year, BYU traveled to Waco and lost 38-24. The Bears pounded the ball on the ground, and the Cougars had no response defensively; Baylor ran for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Baylor would go on to win the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl.

September 17th - @ Oregon Ducks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 51.6%

Original win probability: 25.9%

BYU's win probability against went from 26% to 52% after week one. That was the single highest upgrade on BYU's entire schedule. The Ducks were dominated by the reigning national champions on Saturday.

Originally, this was the second most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to FPI.

September 24th - vs Wyoming Cowboys

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 94.6%

Original win probability: 86.6%

FPI is very bullish on BYU's chances against Wyoming. The Cougars will host the Cowboys later this month in a battle of former conference foes.

September 29th - vs Utah State Aggies

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 92.1%

Original win probability: 82.0%

BYU will host in-state rival Utah State on a Thursday night. After the Aggies narrowly beat UConn and were dominated by Alabama, FPI increased BYU's win probability in this game.

October 8th - vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (neutral site in Las Vegas)

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 27.8%

Original win probability: 18.4%

Still the most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to ESPN FPI. BYU will travel to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame in Allegiant Stadium. Notre Dame put together a very respectable effort against Ohio State on Saturday.

October 15th - vs Arkansas Razorbacks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 57.9%

Original win probability: 46.4%

Even though Arkansas beat a ranked Cincinnati team in week one, FPI now likes BYU to beat Arkansas at home.

October 22nd - @ Liberty Flames

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 70.6%

Original win probability: 58.1%

Originally a tossup according to FPI, BYU's win probability now sits at 71%. BYU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks when it travels across the country to take on Liberty.

October 28th - vs East Carolina Pirates

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 84.9%

Original win probability: 80.0%

East Carolina was a missed field goal away from upsetting no. 13 NC State in week one.

November 5th - @ Boise State Broncos

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 63.7%

Original win probability: 43.0%

Boise State looked sluggish against Oregon State on Saturday. As a result, FPI now likes BYU to beat Boise State in November.

November 19th - vs Utah Tech Trailblazers

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 99.7%

Original win probability: 99.7%

Utah Tech, formerly known as Dixie State, travels to Provo in late November.

November 26th - @ Stanford Cardinal

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 64.1%

Original win probability: 52.9%

A regular season finale at Stanford will wrap up BYU's 2022 slate. Stanford was downright bad last season, but the Cardinal dominated Colgate in week one.

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