FPI Predicts BYU vs Kansas, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Nov 10, 2024

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion against Utah / BYU Photo

After a dramatic win over archrival Utah, BYU has created some separation in the Big 12 standings. BYU returns home this weekend for a home game against Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have won two in a row after starting 1-6, have lost five one-score games. ESPN FPI predicted BYU vs Kansas and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

FPI gives BYU a 61.1% chance to beat Kansas. Before the season, FPI gave BYU just a 28% chance to win this game. Over the course of the season, BYU's chances to beat the Jayhawks have more than doubled according to FPI.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 11.0-1.0. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Kansas - 61.1% (Up from 27.5% in the preseason)
• Arizona State - 50.6% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 84.8% (Up from 62.6%)

Arizona State is a game that looks a lot more challenging today than it did in the preseason. The Sun Devils are 7-2 and on the verge of being ranked.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins. Winning 11 games will get BYU into the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 73.2% chance to win 11 games or more and a 26.2% chance to go undefeated.

9 wins or more - 100%
10 wins or more - 97.1%
11 wins or more - 73.2%
12 wins (undefeated) - 26.2%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved one spot in the FPI rankings to 27 after the win over Utah. Kansas State, who was idle this weekend, is still the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 according to the metrics. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

• Kansas State - 19th nationally
• Colorado - 22
• Iowa State - 24
• BYU -27
• Kansas - 29
• UCF - 36
• Arizona State - 37
• TCU - 40
• Cincinnati - 43
• Baylor - 46
• West Virginia - 51
• Utah - 52
• Texas Tech - 55
• Oklahoma State - 61
• Houston - 74
• Arizona - 77

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Colorado was the biggest winner of the weekend. The Buffaloes have a clear path to the conference championship game after Iowa State's loss to Kansas. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• BYU - 39.1%
• Colorado - 32.2%
• Kansas State - 15.1%
• Iowa State - 7.4%
• Arizona State - 3.0%
• West Virginia - 2.2%
• Baylor - 0.4%
• TCU - 0.3%

BYU and Colorado are the favorites to make the Big 12 title game at this point. There are only four teams with better than a 5% chance to win the conference: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State, and Colorado. West Virginia and Arizona State would need chaos to disrupt the standings to have a chance to make the title game, although the last two weeks have really helped their cause.

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 11 wins or more. BYU has a 58.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• BYU - 58.6%
• Colorado - 27.3%
• Kansas State - 16.2%
• Iowa State - 5.8%
• ASU - 3.2%
• West Virginia - 0.8%
• Baylor - 0.2%
• Cincinnati - 0.1%