FPI Predicts BYU vs Texas, Updates Win Projection for the Cougars

The Cougars will be major underdogs when they take on the Longhorns

After a win over Texas Tech at home, BYU hits the road to take on the Texas Longhorns. BYU is 5-2 and it goes to Austin with the opportunity to pull off the biggest upset of the conference season so far. The betting line has not been set for this game yet, but the Cougars will be major underdogs to the Longhorns. Texas is 6-1 and ranked no. 8 in the AP poll. Their only loss came against Oklahoma in a game that went down to the wire. ESPN's predictive college football algorithm, the football power index, updated its prediction for BYU-Texas. FPI gives BYU just a 5.1% chance to beat Texas on the road.

Before the win over Texas Tech, FPI projected BYU to finish with a 5.4-6.6 record and gave BYU just a 42.2% chance to finish with six or more wins. After the win, FPI upgraded BYU's projected record to 6.2-5.8 and now gives BYU a 75.1% chance to finish with six or more wins. That's why the game against Texas Tech was so critical for bowl eligibility - BYU's schedule is a gauntlet over the next six weeks. There will be no easy wins. FPI projects BYU to be the underdog in all five of its remaining games.

BYU Opponent - FPI Win Probability

@ Texas - 5.1%

@ West Virginia - 33.6%

vs Iowa State - 43.1%

vs Oklahoma - 7.5%

@ Oklahoma State - 27.8%

BYU started the 2023 season ranked 60th in FPI. BYU climbed to 53rd after a 4-1 start to the season. Then the Cougars fell 15 spots to 68th after the loss to the Horned Frogs. The Cougars climbed six spots to 62nd after the win over Texas Tech.

Oklahoma is the the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the FPI rankings - the Sooners rank fourth nationally. The Sooners travel to Provo to take on BYU in November.

Big 12 FPI Rankings

1. Oklahoma - 4th nationally
2. Texas - 7th nationally
3. Kansas State - 14th nationally
4. TCU - 30th nationally
5. UCF - 31st nationally
6. Texas Tech - 36th nationally
7. Oklahoma State - 39th nationally
8. Iowa State - 40th nationally
9. Kansas - 42nd nationally
10. Cincinnati - 50th nationally
11. West Virginia - 51st nationally
12. Houston - 60th nationally
13. BYU - 62nd nationally
14. Baylor - 78th nationally

In the FPI model, Oklahoma is given 60.0% chance to win the conference and Texas is second at 29.4%. Kansas State is third in line with a 9.5% chance to win the Big 12.

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