FPI Predicts BYU vs Utah, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Casey Lundquist | Nov 3, 2024

The BYU defense prepares to take the field against UCF / BYU Photo

After a dramatic weekend of college football wherein seven Top-25 teams lost, BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12. After a week off, BYU is back in action against archrival Utah this weekend. ESPN FPI predicted BYU at Utah and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

FPI gives BYU a 59.3% chance to beat Utah. Before the season, FPI gave BYU just a 24% chance to win this game. Over the course of the season, BYU's chances to beat the Utes have more than doubled according to FPI.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.6-1.4. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Utah - 59.3% (Up from 24.0% in the preseason)
• Kansas - 64.3% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 50.1% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 84.3% (Up from 62.6%)

BYU's chances to beat Arizona State dropped by 8% after the Sun Devils beat Oklahoma State on the road. Arizona State is the most difficult game remaining according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins. Winning 11 games will get BYU into the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 55.1% chance to win 11 games or more and a 16.1% chance to go undefeated.

8 wins or more - 100%
9 wins or more - 98.9%
10 wins or more - 87.9%
11 wins or more - 55.1%
12 wins (undefeated) - 16.1%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved three spots in the FPI rankings to 27 after the win over UCF. They dropped on spot during the by week to 28. Iowa State, who lost to Texas Tech in dramatic fashion last night, is still the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 according to the metrics. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

• Iowa State - 21st nationally
• Kansas State - 22
• Colorado - 23
• BYU -28
• Kansas - 36
• Arizona State - 38
• UCF - 39
• Cincinnati - 40
• Baylor - 45
• TCU - 49
• Texas Tech - 51
• Utah - 53
• West Virginia - 54
• Oklahoma State - 57
• Houston - 76
• Arizona - 79

Conference Title Hopes

Coming off an 8-0 start, BYU had a 32.2% chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. BYU's odds increased since Kansas State and Iowa State lost on Saturday. In terms of conference title hopes, Colorado was the biggest winner of the weekend. The Buffaloes have a path to the conference championship game. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• BYU - 36.3%
• Iowa State - 21.5%
• Colorado - 19.3%
• Kansas State - 13.9%
• Texas Tech - 4.3%
• Arizona State - 2.4%
• Cincinnati - 1.3%
• WVU - 0.4%
• TCU - 0.3%

There are only four teams with real chances to win the conference: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State, and Colorado. Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Cincinnati would need chaos to disrupt the standings to have a chance to make the title game.

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 57.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• BYU - 57.9%
• Iowa State - 24.3%
• Kansas State - 14.4%
• Colorado - 13.8%
• ASU - 2.3%
• Texas Tech - 1.7%
• Cincinnati - 0.8%