FPI Updates BYU's Projected Win Total, Conference Title Chances

Casey Lundquist | Oct 27, 2024

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff against UCF / BYU Photo

After a non-dramatic win over UCF, BYU is 8-0 and one of only two unbeaten teams in the Big 12. BYU gets the week off before taking on archrival Utah on November 9th. Following BYU's win over UCF, ESPN FPI updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season and BYU's conference title hopes.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2024 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.7-1.3. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

• Utah - 60.2% (Up from 24.0% in the preseason)
• Kansas - 64.8% (Up from 27.5%)
• Arizona State - 58.3% (Up from 35.0%)
• Houston - 87.4% (Up from 62.6%)

Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins. Winning 11 games seems like the minimum requirement to play in the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff this year. FPI gives BYU a 60.9% chance to win 11 games or more and a 19.9% chance to go undefeated.

8 wins or more - 100%
9 wins or more - 99.3%
10 wins or more - 90.7%
11 wins or more - 60.9%
12 wins (undefeated) - 19.9%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved three spots in the FPI rankings to 27 after the win over UCF. Kansas State, who took down Kansas last night, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

• Kansas State - 18th nationally
• Iowa State - 19
• Colorado - 22
• BYU -27
• Kansas - 36
• Cincinnati - 38
• Baylor - 43
• UCF - 44
• Oklahoma State - 45
• West Virginia - 48
• Arizona State - 49
• TCU - 51
• Utah - 54
• Texas Tech - 56
• Arizona - 70
• Houston - 86

Conference Title Hopes

Coming off an 8-0 start, BYU 32.2% chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

• Iowa State - 32.7%
• BYU - 32.3%
• Kansas State - 24.6%
• Colorado - 8.0%
• Cincinnati - 1.1%
• TCU - 0.5%
• ASU - 0.4%
• Texas Tech - 0.4%
• WVU - 0.2%

There are really only four teams with real chances to win the conference: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State, and Colorado.

College Football Playoff Hopes

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 57.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• BYU - 57.2%
• Iowa State - 45.6%
• Kansas State - 38.9%
• Colorado - 7.0%
• Cincinnati - 0.8%
• ASU - 0.5%