Game by Game Predictions for BYU's 2023 Schedule

Game predictions for BYU's inaugural season in the Big 12

While all eyes of the college football world are monitoring the transfer portal and the latest rumors surrounding conference realignment, the 2023 season is slowly inching closer. BYU kicks off its season in 101 days. This week, we predicted each game on BYU's 2023 schedule.

Sam Houston - Saturday, September 2 (Provo, UT)

Cougs Daily Pick: BYU (2023 Record 1-0)

The format of the 2023 schedule will be very different from what BYU fans grew accustomed to during the independence era. Instead of a front-loaded slate with P5 opponents out of the gate, BYU will kick off the season against Sam Houston and SUU. Sam Houston is moving up to the FBS ranks in 2023, so while BYU will be celebrating its first game as a Big 12 member, Sam Houston will be celebrating its first game as an FBS school. 

The first two games of the season will be critical for BYU to gel on both sides of the ball; the Cougars could have as many as 9-14 new transfers in the starting lineup. I expect BYU to handle business and start of the season with 1-0 record. 

Southern Utah - Saturday, September 9 (Provo, UT)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 2-0)

No surprise here. BYU should handle business in week two against in-state FCS foe SUU.

Arkansas - Saturday, September 16 (Fayetteville, AR)

Pick: Arkansas (2023 Record 2-1)

Arkansas beat BYU in a shootout turned blowout in 2022. This will be the first true opportunity for BYU's defense to showcase improvements vs last season. In 2022, Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson had nearly 400 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against BYU.

KJ Jefferson returns for the Razorbacks in 2023 and he will be joined by a top-10 transfer class in the country. The Razorbacks struggled defensively in 2022, and they have added multiple high-level defensive transfers to improve that unit in 2023.

I expect BYU's defense to be much more competitive in this game than it was in 2022, and I also expect Arkansas' defense to put up a better fight than they did last season. I think the Razorbacks close out a close game in the fourth quarter at home.

Kansas - Saturday, September 23 (Lawrence, KS)

Pick: Kansas (2023 Record 2-2)

The first conference game of the Big 12 era comes on the road at Kansas. A trip to Lawrence isn't what it used to be - Kansas is coming off its best season in the last decade. And the Jayhawks should have starting quarterback Jalon Daniels back in the lineup. Kansas was undefeated last season before Daniels suffered a an injury against TCU. This will be a tough game to win on the road and FPI expects this game to be a tossup.

BYU could be welcomed into the Big 12 in true Big 12 fashion with an old-fashioned shootout. I expect this game to include a lot of points and come down to the wire before Kansas pulls it out.

Cincinnati - Friday, September 29 (Provo, UT)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 3-2)

BYU's first conference home game will come against fellow newcomer Cincinnati. The Bearcats will be breaking in a new head coach since Luke Fickell took the head job at Wisconsin after the 2022 season. The Cougars will play in front of a sellout crowd for their first home game in the Big 12, and we expect BYU to ride the home-field advantage on its way to its first win in Big 12 conference play.

TCU - Saturday, October 14 (Fort Worth, TX)

Pick: TCU (2023 Record 3-3)

BYU and TCU renew an old Mountain West rivalry in mid October. This is another tough road game for BYU who is given just a 16.3% chance to leave Fort Worth with a win according to FPI. Fort Worth has been a tough place to play for the Cougars, and this is a game where TCU will be favored. We are going with the Horned Frogs in this one.

Most importantly, if BYU is 3-3 with a 1-2 conference record, everything would still be in play. Kansas State won the Big 12 last season with two conference losses. BYU could be .500 through six games and have everything to play for. That is an unprecedented for BYU as it enters the Big 12. BYU's hopes crumbled last year after the its first loss to Oregon. The years of losing all hope after the first loss are over. 

Texas Tech - Saturday, October 21 (Provo, UT)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 4-3)

Texas Tech has the chance to win the Big 12 in 2023. BYU might come into this game as an underdog, but we're picking BYU to pull off the upset and get back on track for bowl eligibility. 

Texas - Saturday, October 28 (Austin, TX)

Pick: Texas (2023 Record 4-4)

Texas is supposed to be back this season. It will be interesting to see if Texas is living up to the preseason hype by the end of October. It will also be important to see how healthy BYU is at this points in the season. After consecutive games against TCU and Texas Tech, this will be a tough challenge on the road in Austin. Texas is the the top Big 12 team in the FPI rankings and a top five team nationally, making this is the most challenging game on BYU's schedule according to FPI.

We think BYU will keep this competitive like it always does against the Longhorns, but Texas' physicality will win the day against a BYU team coming off a tough three-game stretch.

West Virginia - Saturday, November 04 (Morgantown, WV)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 5-4)

BYU kicks off its challenging November slate on the road at West Virginia. FPI gives BYU a 37% chance to leave Morgantown with a win. West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat heading into the 2023 season. If WVU gets off to a slow start, he might not be the head coach by the time this game is played. We're picking BYU to leave Morgantown with a victory.

Iowa State - Saturday, November 11 (Provo, UT)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 6-4)

BYU will host a home game against Iowa State after two consecutive road games. This is another game that could determine BYU's bowl hopes. We're picking BYU to defend its home field and beat Iowa State.

Oklahoma - Saturday, November 18 (Provo, UT)

Pick: Oklahoma (2023 Record 6-5)

BYU will have the opportunity to host Oklahoma in its first season in the Big 12. The Sooners will be heavy favorites according to the FPI projections, but what will Oklahoma really look like by November? Last season, the Sooners were fighting for bowl eligibility. By late November, depth is critical, and the Sooners will have more depth than BYU, so we're picking Oklahoma in a close one.

Oklahoma State - Saturday, November 25 (Stillwater, OK)

Pick: BYU (2023 Record 7-5)

BYU wraps up its 2022 conference schedule on the road at Oklahoma State. This game got a little more interesting when Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy took a shot at new BYU signee Caleb Etienne. 

FPI gives BYU just a 24% chance to beat Oklahoma State on the road, but we're picking the Cougars to leave Stillwater with a victory. Oklahoma State's culture started showing cracks last season, and those cracks became a divide when the transfer window opened.

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