How Many More Games Does BYU Need to Win to Make the Big 12 Championship?

Casey Lundquist | Nov 11, 2024

BYU running back LJ Martin against Utah / BYU Photo

Coming off a miraculous win over Utah, BYU is 9-0 and firmly in the lead in the Big 12 standings. With a dangerous game against Kansas upcoming, we're taking a look at BYU's remaining three games and discussing how many games BYU will need to win to make the Big 12 championship game.

There are three scenarios we'll look at

1. BYU goes 3-0
2. BYU goes 2-1
3. BYU goes 1-2

Any record worse than 1-2 would knock BYU out of title contention. Without further ado, let's dive in.

1. BYU Goes 3-0: Win And You're In

BYU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings. If BYU wins, they are in. A 12-0 record would guarantee BYU a spot in the Big 12 championship game. FPI gives BYU a 26% chance to finish the regular season unbeaten.

If BYU is unbeaten, it's not a matter of if they would be in, it's a matter of who they would play. The Cougars would either face Colorado (who also controls its destiny), Kansas State, or Iowa State. Both Arizona State and West Virginia have an outside chance of making the title game as well. Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final week of the regular season. That game could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship if Colorado loses one of its final games.

2. BYU Goes 2-1: You're Still In

According to FPI, 2-1 over the final four games is the most likely outcome for BYU. FPI says there is a 47% chance BYU goes 11-1 and a 73% chance they finish 11-1 or better.

If BYU goes 2-1, they will be in the championship game no matter what. No tiebreakers would be needed - BYU would be one of the top two teams in the Big 12 standings.

3. BYU Goes 1-2: Things Get Messy

1-2 is the bare minimum for BYU to have a chance to play in the Big 12 title game. FPI says there is a 24% chance BYU will finish 1-2 over the final three games.

If BYU loses two games, the Cougars would need tiebreakers to get them into the Big 12 championship game. In that scenario, there would be a possibility of as many as five teams being tied at the top of the standings with two losses.

Depending on how many teams are tied and which teams are tied, BYU may or may not win the tiebreaker. There are too many possible tiebreaker scenarios to accurately break down whether BYU could get in with two losses or not. Again, it would all depend on which teams are tied in the standings.

For BYU, this is the scenario you want to avoid. Maintaining control of your own destiny is one of the most valuable commodities in college football. If BYU keeps winning, they will find themselves in Arlington.