Is BYU Football Doomed to Repeat the College Gameday Curse?

Joe Wheat | Oct 8, 2024

BYU captains take the field against Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

Bye weeks are usually slow on news, but this is not a usual BYU season. While most BYU fans were enjoying their traditional General Conference weekend crepes, they received news that BYU would be hosting FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday against Arizona. This news was met with both jubilation and existential dread.

While BYU has already exceeded even the most passionate fans' wild expectations, there is still some trepidation on whether it’s ok to buy into the hype. After all, BYU did start 5-2 last season before losing 5 straight and is 0-3 all time when featured on a national pregame show. However, this is a new year and a new team. Here are 5 reasons BYU fans should expect the Cougars to break their “College Gameday” curse against Arizona.

1. This BYU defense is generational

BYU defensive end Tyler Batty intercepts Avery Johnson in the Cougars dominant win over no. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

To compete for a conference championship, a team needs to have something they do that is elite. That thing for BYU is defense. This season, BYU ranks 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th in pass efficiency defense, 17th in sacks, 18th in red zone defense, 15th in turnovers and 4th in overall defensive efficiency according to ESPN’s FPI. The last time BYU ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency was 2012 with a defense that featured Kyle Van Noy, Ziggy Ansah, and Daniel Sorenson.

Furthermore, BYU is ranked 15th nationally in pass efficiency differential according to CougarStats. That stat may not mean much on its face, but 19 of the top 25 teams in pass efficiency differential won 10 games last season. The best part is BYU may have already played the best offenses on their schedule. Kansas State and SMU are averaging 7.2 yards per play and 6.5 yards per play against all other FBS opponents not named BYU. Those totals would rank 9th and 22nd nationally. BYU held both out of the endzone and to a combined 4.3 yards per play. Arizona is the only offense left on the schedule who is top 40 in yards per play this season and they haven’t scored more than 23 points since week 1.

Any way you look at it, BYU’s defense is Big 12 championship quality, and health permitting, that should continue.

2. Jake Retzlaff is playing better than every quarterback left on BYU’s schedule

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff drops back against Kansas State / BYU Photo

Jake Retzlaff has been the best quarterback on the field in every game he’s played this season. A big part of that is because BYU’s secondary is making opposing quarterbacks look like G5 backups, but Retzlaff is no slouch. Retzlaff is top 6 in the conference in yards per attempt, touchdowns per game, and quarterback rating while owning the 3rd highest PFF passing grade in the Big 12. The better news is that Retzlaff ranks ahead of every quarterback on the schedule in each of those metrics but one. Only KJ Jefferson (UCF) has averaged more yards per attempt.

“But the turnovers”, you might be thinking. Only 2 quarterbacks on BYU's remaining schedule have thrown fewer interceptions than Retzlaff and only Noah Fifita and Houston’s Donovan Smith have a better adjusted completion percentages. Sometimes, a game comes down to which team has the better quarterback. Jake Retzlaff has been that quarterback in each of BYU’s 5 wins, and if he continues that, I like BYU’s chances in every game they play.

3. LJ Martin has yet to be unleashed

BYU RB LJ Martin vs Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

It’s honestly incredible that BYU is 5-0 without the guy who some expected to be the BYU offense's only hope coming into the season. Truly, the only thing that has held back this BYU team so far this season has been the run game. While BYU ranks in the top 35 in defensive success rate and offensive success rate per drop back according to collegefootballinsiders.com, they rank 106th in success rate per rush. I expect that to change now that LJ Martin is healthy. Martin averages nearly 5 yards per carry in his career while 15.2% of his career runs have gone to 10+ yards. For reference, only 14.5% of Tyler Allgeier’s runs went for 10+ yards in 2021. With Martin back in the lineup, BYU's best offensive football might be ahead of them.

4. BYU is one of the most complete teams in the conference

BYU captains take the field against Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

In the offseason, Kalani Sitake stressed the importance of playing complimentary football in all three phases, and BYU has done that better than almost anyone. BYU ranks 2nd in the conference in yards per play differential and 4th in net expected points added (EPA) per play. Best of all, they rank ahead of every team left on their schedule in both categories.

Moreover, BYU is one of the most battle-tested teams in the country, with a top 30 strength of schedule according to the Sagarin ratings. The Cougars are the only team in the country with 2 AP Top 25 wins, one of the key reasons BYU has the #1 strength of record according to ESPN’s FPI. BYU is not only 5-0 against that schedule but have held at least a 20-point lead in 4 of the 5 games they’ve played. We are deep enough into the season to say that BYU is not a paper tiger, nor are they merely beating up bad teams. They are a legitimate contender for the Big 12 title and have earned the right to be considered one of the 15 best teams in the country.

5. It's best to enjoy the good times while you are in them

BYU players celebrate with the ROC after win over no. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

There are two types of fans in the world: Those who cannot enjoy the good times because they fear they will not last and those who enjoy them because they know they won’t. It’s a sad reality, but most diehard fans limit their enjoyment of a season to after it is over. Then, 20 minutes after the bowl game ends, they move on to contemplating whether the team can validate their success next season. Around we go.

Have you at any point this season kept yourself from fully buying in to your undefeated team because you fear BYU will collapse like last year? Did you feel dread after finding out that BYU was hosting FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff because “BYU always loses when this happens?” If so, you aren’t alone, but I would caution you against letting the fear of disappointment keep you from enjoying one of the coolest moments in BYU football history.

BYU is 5-0, ranked 14th in the country, and earned the right to host one of the premier college football pregame shows on television for just the second time ever. All of this occurring in year two of transitioning to a Power 4 conference. Regardless of what happens the rest of the season, that is worth celebrating today. For every 2009 TCU and 2020 Coastal Carolina, I can give you a 2018 Wisconsin, a 2021 Utah or a 2024 Kansas State where BYU met the prime-time moment. Could BYU flop in the national spotlight? Sure. But the fact they are in it at all makes today a great day to be a Cougar.