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No. 9 BYU's Initial CFP Ranking was Disrespectful, But What Does it Mean?

Joe Wheat

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff warms up before UCF game
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff warms up before UCF game / BYU Photo
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No. 9 BYU football reached a new milestone on Tuesday after earning their first top 10 college football playoff ranking in program history. While this is certainly cause for celebration, the news of BYU’s ranking was met with surprise from both BYU fans and national media alike. Did the committee get BYU’s ranking right? And what do Tuesday’s rankings say about what BYU needs to accomplish the rest of the way to improve their stock? Let’s discuss.

Did the Committee get BYU’s ranking right

Let’s start here: The playoff committee shafted BYU in these rankings. I am perfectly fine with BYU being ranked behind Oregon, Georgia, and Ohio State, but BYU has a legitimate argument to be ranked above every other team ahead of them. BYU has as many CFP ranked wins as Ohio State Miami, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee, and Indiana combined. Of the top 9, only Ohio State, Tennessee and Oregon have more wins over teams with winning records.

The committee touted the “eye test” when explaining the committee’s placement of Indiana above BYU despite Indiana currently holding the 103rd rated strength of schedule. That argument didn’t seem to apply to BYU in 2020, who never cracked the top 12 in the CFP rankings despite having the 64th ranked strength of schedule. The committee gushed over Miami’s explosive offense despite BYU being +17 over Miami in scoring total margin in conference play.

Nothing about BYU’s ranking makes sense unless the committee got fixated on BYU’s predictive metrics like FPI and SP+, which both have BYU ranked in the 20's. These metrics should not apply, though, as the CFP rankings are supposed to be about what has been done on the field and not what a computer predicts will happen going forward. In summary, BYU was blatantly disrespected. Again. New milenium, new conference, new system, same story.

Why do these rankings matter?

In short, they don’t. There is a lot of football still to be played and a team’s place in the first CFP rankings is not always indicative of where they end up in the end. The frustration today, though, is that BYU already played (and won) their toughest games in the eyes of the committee and will need help from teams above them or serious style points to move up. BYU’s placement also leaves little to no margin for error, with just three spots separating BYU being in the playoff or in the Alamo Bowl. Of course, if BYU wins the Big 12, their ranking does not matter so long as BYU stays ahead of Boise State. This shouldn’t be a problem, as Boise State’s best win is a loss, but if this committee’s ranking shows anything, it’s that quality losses are just about as good as wins.

What is BYU’s path to move up?

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion scores a touchdown against Oklahoma State
BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion scores a touchdown against Oklahoma State / BYU Photo

If BYU wants to move up on their own merits, they need style points. Hard stop. The committee explicitly stated on ESPN’s Ranking Reveal show that teams like Miami, Texas, and Indiana are ranked ahead of BYU because their wins are more visually appealing. BYU only plays one team the rest of the way with a winning record (Arizona State), and therefore won’t have an opportunity to beat another ranked opponent like Texas and Tennessee will. Otherwise, BYU will need teams above them to lose, which is certainly a possibility. According to FPI, every team ranked ahead of BYU is projected to lose at least one more game, with only Ohio State, Miami, and Penn State having a greater than 40% chance of running the table. Most of all, BYU needs to keep winning, which is easier said than done. BYU will be favored in every remaining game, and needs to prove they are as good of a frontrunner as they are an underdog.

Does BYU need to run the table to make the CFP?

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff warms up before UCF game
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff warms up before UCF game / BYU Photo

With BYU’s current ranking and remaining schedule, BYU’s magic number for a CFP birth is 12 wins. If that 12th win comes in the Big 12 championship they are in no matter what, but the committee made it clear they need to finish the regular season unbeaten for a chance at an at-large bid. I don’t believe the committee will punish a 12-win team for losing a conference championship game in favor of a 9- or 10-win team that didn’t play in one. It didn’t hurt TCU in 2022, and I don’t expect it will hurt BYU if it comes to that.

What do these rankings mean for the Big 12?

The quietest alarm bell of the night was that one loss Iowa State was ranked five spots below one loss Boise State. Boise State does have the best win between the two schools with a beat down of #21 Washington State, but it’s clear the Committee doesn’t take the Big 12 seriously as a playoff threat. Still, 4 teams in the top 20 isn’t bad. It's as many as the Big Ten and more than the ACC, but with only BYU ranked higher than 17 and Iowa State and Kansas State still to play one another, the Big 12 is looking like a one-bid league unless there is some serious November chaos.

Conclusion

Tuesday’s rankings ultimately mean nothing for BYU so long as they take care of business over the final four weeks. BYU controls their own destiny to the College Football Playoff and have passed every test so far with flying colors. BYU’s no. 9 ranking is understandably frustrating when their resume is top 5, but it’s still the best CFP ranking BYU has ever had at a time when BYU is playing their best football. BYU has proven the doubters wrong at every turn this season. The playoff committee is just the next small piece of debris on the hype train tracks.  

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

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