Predicting BYU Football vs No. 13 Kansas State

Casey Lundquist | Sep 21, 2024

Jake Retzlaff takes a snap in the third quarter against Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

The second season of BYU in the Big 12 is about to kickoff. On Saturday night, 3-0 BYU hosts 3-0 and no. 13 Kansas State in Lavell Edwards Stadium. BYU will be wearing white throwback uniforms to honor the 1996 BYU football team, and the crowd will be wearing white as well. It's a whiteout after dark in Provo.

The Wildcats are favored by one touchdown heading into this game. Today, we're pulling out our crystal ball and predicting BYU vs Kansas State.

First, we feel like we've had a really good feel for this team through three games. Allow us to explain.

• Vegas favored BYU by 14 points in the season opener. We picked BYU by 28 (38-10) and the Cougars won by 28.
• Against SMU, the Mustangs were double-digit favorites. We picked BYU to win by 4 and the Cougars won by 3.
• Against Wyoming, we picked BYU to win 34-10 even though BYU was only favored by 10. BYU won 34-14.

Of all the games this season, however, this game is the hardest to predict by far. Avery Johnson is making his first conference road start. BYU's had a revolving door at running back due to injuries. Kansas State's secondary has not been great defending the pass. BYU has been one of the best teams in the country against the pass, but the Cougars haven't faced a dominant passing attack yet. There are more questions than answers heading into this game and we've gone back and forth throughout the week.

There are a few things that BYU must do to win this game.

BYU has to make Avery Johnson convert first downs with his arm. Johnson has not proven capable of dissecting a defense with his arm alone. He will be able to pick up some yards with his legs - he might be the best running quarterback that BYU will face this season. But if BYU can keep Kansas State behind the sticks and force Johnson to throw it, BYU will have a chance to win this game.

On offense, BYU needs to let Jake Retzlaff sling it. Allowing chunk-yardage plays through the air has been the primary weakness of the Kansas State defense. The Wildcats have allowed:

• 27 passes of 10 yards or more
• 18 passes of 15 yards or more
• 13 passes of 20 yards or more
• 6 passes of 35 yards or more
• 3 passes of 45 yards or more

Only Cam Ward (Miami) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) have more completions of 20 yards or more than Jake Retzlaff. Long, sustained drives are going to be hard to come by in this game. BYU will need to pickup some chunk yards.

At the same time, Jake Retzlaff has to be smart and protect the football. It's hard to imagine a scenario where BYU coughs up the football multiple times AND walks away with a win. Turnovers have plagued Retzlaff during his BYU career. That has to end on Saturday.

Gaining yards on the ground is going to be a challenge. KSU is one of the better run defenses in the country, and BYU could start its third or fourth-string running back. BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick needs to get creative to stay ahead of the sticks. BYU has faced too many 3rd & long situations this season. If the run game isn't working, BYU will need to get creative to pickup 3-7 yards on first and second down.

Lastly, BYU needs to make Kansas State work for their touchdowns. What does that mean? Kansas State has returned more kicks for touchdowns than any team in college football over the last 20 years. BYU can't allow a special teams touchdown. They also can't allow a defensive score - something that plagued BYU a year ago.

I think this is the game where Jake Retzlaff will turn doubters into believers. Retzlaff will need to get creative and make plays off script.

Ultimately, I think the environment will be the deciding factor in this game. It's a night game under the lights at Lavell Edwards Stadium and it will be a whiteout.

I think the first team to 24 will win this game. BYU pulls off the upset.

BYU 27 | Kansas State 23