Predicting BYU's Placement in the New CFP Ranking

A new CFP top 25 will be unveiled on Tuesday night

The updated College Football Playoff Rankings will be released on Tuesday at 5 PM Mountain Time. Last week, BYU was ranked no. 13 in CFP rankings. Today, we predict BYU's ranking in the updated CFP rankings.

First, this is how teams surrounding BYU in the rankings fared last weekend.

• #3 Alabama - W over Auburn 24-22
• #4 Cincinnati - W over East Carolina 35-13
• #5 Michigan - W over Ohio State 42-27
• #6 Notre Dame - W over Stanford 45-14
• # 7 Oklahoma State - W over Oklahoma 37-33
  
• #8 Baylor - W 27-24 over Texas Tech
• #9 Ole Miss - W 31-21 over Mississippi State
• #10 Oklahoma - L to Oklahoma State 37-33
• #11 Oregon - W over Oregon State 38-29
• #12 Michigan State - W 30-27 over Penn State
• #13 BYU - W 35-31 over USC
• #14 Wisconsin - L 23-13 to Minnesota
• #15 Texas A&M - L 27-24 to LSU
• #16 Iowa - W 28-21 over Nebraska

Worst-Case Scenario

In the worst-case scenario, Oklahoma would not drop below the Cougars in the rankings after a loss to Oklahoma State. That would eliminate all opportunities of BYU sneaking into a NY6 Bowl.

In addition, BYU could be leapfrogged by #16 Iowa who has the same record as BYU.

Worst-case scenario ranking: #14

Best-Case Scenario

In the best-case scenario, no teams ranked behind BYU would leapfrog the Cougars. Then, #10 Oklahoma would drop below the Cougars after a loss to Oklahoma State.

In the very best-case scenario, BYU would surpass Michigan State after the committee re-evaluated the resumes of both schools. Even in the very best-case scenario, this is very unlikely. Michigan State has a win over Michigan which will likely keep the Spartans ahead of the Cougars for the duration of the season.

Best-case scenario ranking: #11

Most Likely

After last weekend, BYU will probably move up one spot thanks to Oklahoma's loss to Oklahoma State.

Most likely ranking: #12

What would this ranking say about BYU's NY6 chances? At #12, BYU's NY6 hopes would be slim to none. Unfortunately for BYU fans, the games that needed to go their way last weekend did not. The only opportunity to move into an at-large spot would be if Baylor lost to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship and dropped below BYU. In addition, Oklahoma State would have to stay out of the top four. 

Why? If Oklahoma State qualified for the playoff, Baylor would play in the Sugar Bowl regardless of whether they dropped below BYU in the rankings.